"Curiously, the massive improvement in field goal kicking has not led to an overall boost in offense"
Not curious! With the league now hitting at an astounding 89% on field goals of more than 50 yards, coaches are less incentived to be aggressive around midfield because they can get points via the leg. The better the field goal percentage, the less the incentive to take big risks going for a touchdown.
But the percentage of 4th downs that result in FG attempts hasn't changed over the past decade. Punts have been replaced with going-for-it, which is another factor that should have led to more scoring, all-else-equal. So they're taking more risks, not less.
Defenses are daring offenses to run now by playing two safeties deep. We’ll see if teams revert back to having a two back offense to take advantage. Handing the ball off for a guaranteed 4-5 yards every time all of a sudden becomes a thing.
i think the simpler explanation is that this is cyclical, but rule changes/points of emphasis could affect the cycle
-rules were put in place that favored the offense/passing
-the smartest offensive minds found a way to take advantage of those rules (and less smart offensive minds eventually caught up too)
-to combat this, GMs also sought out players that could better cover the pass by prioritizing linebackers who play more like and are smaller like safeties and also devaluing the NT/DT position a bit (we used to see a higher frequency of defensive tackles in the top 5-10 picks)
-defensive play callers have also finally caught up and are playing to take away the pass by playing 2 high and putting more bodies in the secondary by playing more base nickel and dime defense (which reduces open space as you mentioned), knowing running plays are less efficient and preferring offenses to grind it out
-its possible now that running can be more efficient due to all these factors - fewer stacked boxes, smaller linebackers who aren't as adept at tackling, etc.
-without a rule change/point of emphasis change to make it happen faster, eventually the smarter teams will value the running game/stopping the run a bit more (the eagles, who are considered one of, if not the smartest team have the highest drafted DT of the last few years and went DT first in B2B drafts, and also signed Saquon to a big contract this year) to gain a small edge, and then the cycle will repeat
I'm no data analyst expert but I don't think the defensive shrinkage theory holds up. But I did some playing around with the 2010-2023 combine dataset on Kaggle to compare the mean CB & WR 40 times and compared them.
+------+-------+-------+--------+
| Year | CB | WR | Diff |
+------+-------+-------+--------+
| 2010 | 4.490 | 4.520 | 0.030 |
| 2011 | 4.460 | 4.500 | 0.040 |
| 2012 | 4.500 | 4.490 | -0.010 |
| 2013 | 4.505 | 4.510 | 0.005 |
| 2014 | 4.510 | 4.510 | 0.000 |
| 2015 | 4.510 | 4.510 | 0.000 |
| 2016 | 4.490 | 4.540 | 0.050 |
| 2017 | 4.510 | 4.520 | 0.010 |
| 2018 | 4.505 | 4.510 | 0.005 |
| 2019 | 4.505 | 4.500 | -0.005 |
| 2020 | 4.480 | 4.500 | 0.020 |
| 2021 | 4.485 | 4.505 | 0.020 |
| 2022 | 4.480 | 4.475 | -0.005 |
| 2023 | 4.460 | 4.490 | 0.030 |
+------+-------+-------+--------+
With the exception of a few years the CBs have had the speed edge. And doesn't seem to correlate to well with the passing numbers.
My speculation is a decent part of it is defenses' adjusting to the Kyle Shanahan/Mcvay Offense which has taken over the NFL.
Does seem like Safeties shaved a few hundredths of a second off their median times. But not sure how significant it is in either the statistical or practical football sense.
If ya wanna give playing around with kaggle a shot here's my notebook
All seriousness though from my first comment, I think another large factor not mentioned is bad offensive line play. Ethan mentions that Williams has struggled on a "stacked" Bears team, but I think that's largely down to, while they have talent almost everywhere else, their offensive line is absolutely atrocious.
Don’t disagree that better athletes on defense in schemes designed to stop the pass are a factor, but a bigger factor may be poor line play.
Through a combination of college schemes and limits on coaching time in the NFL, along with the lack of continuity driven by the demand for even mediocre lineman, the technique is not there individually or group wide.
qb's are overpaid. only Mahomes is worth 50M. the rest of the 50M wannabe's require a team with depth and talent, which is more difficult to achieve with one player taking up a quarter of the cap.
the margin between Sam Darnold and Dak Prescott is much smaller than the 40M difference in salary. in other words, Sam + 40M >>> Dak.
examples of this would be Brady Patriots paying below market-value in order to bolster depth, as well as the rookie-contract-qb teams. few examples of teams winning as much once the qb signs at the going rate
Purdy is a great example, esp as the last pick looks like he ended the career of a 3rd pick a few years earlier (that they gave up significant capital for) as a meaningful player in the league, it’s more about the environment they get into and how they fit than the talent the player has., Tua pre McDaniel and post is a massively different player (plus Tyreek as well), guys like darnold, mayfield, geno who’ve shown they can clearly perform at a good level (if not quite good enough to win the conference) who would take a lot less than a cousins/ dak type on 2/3/4x their salary.
Eli manning got a ton of shit for his draft manoeuvres but I think there’s only 2 QBs who’ve won more superbowls than him since he’s been drafted (and they’re the two best to do it), which is why I’m a bit surprised that more players haven’t tried to do this more often as where you end up seems to be a better indicator of success than how high you are picked or your talent.
Imagine the 49ers with Trey Lance draft capital! I don't think the NFL will allow another QB to dictate the terms of service as one Eli did, but I do share your surprise that it hasn't been tried again - that we know of! Idk how, but I have a feeling the NFL would intervene and get their ducks in a row before presenting it to the public.
More black QBs. 2014 there were 3 or 4; 2024 there are 12 or 13.
Lamar in MVP seasons - 208/gm (28th) and 229/gm (16th)
Cam Newton MVP season - 239/gm (23rd)
Even Vick, in his top 5 MVP voting seasons prior to rule changes -154/gm (32nd) and 195/gm (19th)
The broader idea of exceptional black QB play does not incentivize passing yards per game. And the rules have made it easier to get away with a weaker arm. And media pressures (e.g. Mina Kimes/Steve Ruiz and their dimwitted campaign for Tyrod Taylor over Josh Allen).
I am speculating wildly with no stats to back me up, but I wonder if the rise of college QBs jumping from one program to the next is leaving them less prepared to succeed in the NFL? They miss out on developing skills in a consistent environment over 3-4 years and instead have to focus on learning a new playbook/system, players, etc. every 9 months or so.
Great article. Widen the field to juice the offense and then go from 100 yards to 100 meters to internationalize the game and make first downs slightly harder to throw a bone to the defense.
Eliminate kickoffs by spotting the ball at the 30 after a score (unless the scoring team wants to go for an onside kick). Make the extra point truly automatic unless the scoring team wants to risk it by going for two. Keep the clock running on incomplete passes except within the final minutes of the halves (to match out of bounds plays).
Replace those eliminated plays and resultant contact by adding an 18th game and an extra bye week.
Overall result is more football that’s slightly safer, higher scoring, broader reaching and faster poised to somehow dominate even more than it already does.
Personally I think 2-high has had more to do with the decline in offense. But ur point also works great for the nba. The proliferation of spacing has made things so much easier for the top scorers. The three greatest offensive seasons from the 2010’s imo (2014 kd, 2016 curry, 2019 harden) are all blown out of the water by Luka, embiid, and Giannis this year. Is it because they are that much better? No. It’s the amount of space they have to operate. Even sga shot the ball at a ridiculously efficient rate on mostly jumpers. People who want to move the 3pt line back fundamentally don’t understand that that would create even more space for these stars to operate in. NBA players are very skilled and could find a way to make a 3 that’s two feet farther. I think Colin cowherds idea of taking away the corner 3 would be very smart. It would throw a wrench into modern spacing and bring back midrange scoring.
I wonder if QB evaluation has fallen behind the metrics a bit.
In other words, were the QBs who were pronounced "busts" really busts? Or were they too quickly regarded as such as they were being evaluated by the standards of the previous era, and teams wanted to take another spin at the wheel to see if they landed on a franchise QB (e.g. the Bears dumping Justin Fields to get a chance at Caleb Williams).
This year, we've seen teams have success with QBs who were dumped by their original teams and regarded as busts -- Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield. Going back a bit, Geno Smith and Ryan Tannehill enjoyed career renaissances. Maybe they got wiser with age, or maybe they were discrded too early.
"Curiously, the massive improvement in field goal kicking has not led to an overall boost in offense"
Not curious! With the league now hitting at an astounding 89% on field goals of more than 50 yards, coaches are less incentived to be aggressive around midfield because they can get points via the leg. The better the field goal percentage, the less the incentive to take big risks going for a touchdown.
But the percentage of 4th downs that result in FG attempts hasn't changed over the past decade. Punts have been replaced with going-for-it, which is another factor that should have led to more scoring, all-else-equal. So they're taking more risks, not less.
https://mfootballanalytics.com/2022/07/07/making-an-nfl-fourth-down-decision-model/
Defenses are daring offenses to run now by playing two safeties deep. We’ll see if teams revert back to having a two back offense to take advantage. Handing the ball off for a guaranteed 4-5 yards every time all of a sudden becomes a thing.
This is it
i think the simpler explanation is that this is cyclical, but rule changes/points of emphasis could affect the cycle
-rules were put in place that favored the offense/passing
-the smartest offensive minds found a way to take advantage of those rules (and less smart offensive minds eventually caught up too)
-to combat this, GMs also sought out players that could better cover the pass by prioritizing linebackers who play more like and are smaller like safeties and also devaluing the NT/DT position a bit (we used to see a higher frequency of defensive tackles in the top 5-10 picks)
-defensive play callers have also finally caught up and are playing to take away the pass by playing 2 high and putting more bodies in the secondary by playing more base nickel and dime defense (which reduces open space as you mentioned), knowing running plays are less efficient and preferring offenses to grind it out
-its possible now that running can be more efficient due to all these factors - fewer stacked boxes, smaller linebackers who aren't as adept at tackling, etc.
-without a rule change/point of emphasis change to make it happen faster, eventually the smarter teams will value the running game/stopping the run a bit more (the eagles, who are considered one of, if not the smartest team have the highest drafted DT of the last few years and went DT first in B2B drafts, and also signed Saquon to a big contract this year) to gain a small edge, and then the cycle will repeat
Make the I-formation great again!
I'm no data analyst expert but I don't think the defensive shrinkage theory holds up. But I did some playing around with the 2010-2023 combine dataset on Kaggle to compare the mean CB & WR 40 times and compared them.
+------+-------+-------+--------+
| Year | CB | WR | Diff |
+------+-------+-------+--------+
| 2010 | 4.490 | 4.520 | 0.030 |
| 2011 | 4.460 | 4.500 | 0.040 |
| 2012 | 4.500 | 4.490 | -0.010 |
| 2013 | 4.505 | 4.510 | 0.005 |
| 2014 | 4.510 | 4.510 | 0.000 |
| 2015 | 4.510 | 4.510 | 0.000 |
| 2016 | 4.490 | 4.540 | 0.050 |
| 2017 | 4.510 | 4.520 | 0.010 |
| 2018 | 4.505 | 4.510 | 0.005 |
| 2019 | 4.505 | 4.500 | -0.005 |
| 2020 | 4.480 | 4.500 | 0.020 |
| 2021 | 4.485 | 4.505 | 0.020 |
| 2022 | 4.480 | 4.475 | -0.005 |
| 2023 | 4.460 | 4.490 | 0.030 |
+------+-------+-------+--------+
With the exception of a few years the CBs have had the speed edge. And doesn't seem to correlate to well with the passing numbers.
My speculation is a decent part of it is defenses' adjusting to the Kyle Shanahan/Mcvay Offense which has taken over the NFL.
Interesting data. Do Safties please!
Pos | S | WR | Diff (WR)
---------------------------------------
2010 | 4.560 | 4.520 | -0.040
2011 | 4.570 | 4.500 | -0.070
2012 | 4.540 | 4.490 | -0.050
2013 | 4.585 | 4.510 | -0.075
2014 | 4.580 | 4.510 | -0.070
2015 | 4.575 | 4.510 | -0.065
2016 | 4.575 | 4.540 | -0.035
2017 | 4.545 | 4.520 | -0.025
2018 | 4.520 | 4.510 | -0.010
2019 | 4.495 | 4.500 | 0.005
2020 | 4.545 | 4.500 | -0.045
2021 | 4.550 | 4.505 | -0.045
2022 | 4.430 | 4.475 | 0.045
2023 | 4.540 | 4.490 | -0.05
Does seem like Safeties shaved a few hundredths of a second off their median times. But not sure how significant it is in either the statistical or practical football sense.
If ya wanna give playing around with kaggle a shot here's my notebook
https://www.kaggle.com/code/tannernb/defensive-shrinkage
If ya wanna graph different stuff you can just type
graph_median_workouts(BENCH, [WR, S])
Also copy and pasting the code into gpt it should be able to modify or add things for you.
Thanks for sharing
More importantly - there doesn't seem to actually be much of the trend in increased speed that HOS based his theory on.
All seriousness though from my first comment, I think another large factor not mentioned is bad offensive line play. Ethan mentions that Williams has struggled on a "stacked" Bears team, but I think that's largely down to, while they have talent almost everywhere else, their offensive line is absolutely atrocious.
Don’t disagree that better athletes on defense in schemes designed to stop the pass are a factor, but a bigger factor may be poor line play.
Through a combination of college schemes and limits on coaching time in the NFL, along with the lack of continuity driven by the demand for even mediocre lineman, the technique is not there individually or group wide.
qb's are overpaid. only Mahomes is worth 50M. the rest of the 50M wannabe's require a team with depth and talent, which is more difficult to achieve with one player taking up a quarter of the cap.
the margin between Sam Darnold and Dak Prescott is much smaller than the 40M difference in salary. in other words, Sam + 40M >>> Dak.
examples of this would be Brady Patriots paying below market-value in order to bolster depth, as well as the rookie-contract-qb teams. few examples of teams winning as much once the qb signs at the going rate
Purdy is a great example, esp as the last pick looks like he ended the career of a 3rd pick a few years earlier (that they gave up significant capital for) as a meaningful player in the league, it’s more about the environment they get into and how they fit than the talent the player has., Tua pre McDaniel and post is a massively different player (plus Tyreek as well), guys like darnold, mayfield, geno who’ve shown they can clearly perform at a good level (if not quite good enough to win the conference) who would take a lot less than a cousins/ dak type on 2/3/4x their salary.
Eli manning got a ton of shit for his draft manoeuvres but I think there’s only 2 QBs who’ve won more superbowls than him since he’s been drafted (and they’re the two best to do it), which is why I’m a bit surprised that more players haven’t tried to do this more often as where you end up seems to be a better indicator of success than how high you are picked or your talent.
Imagine the 49ers with Trey Lance draft capital! I don't think the NFL will allow another QB to dictate the terms of service as one Eli did, but I do share your surprise that it hasn't been tried again - that we know of! Idk how, but I have a feeling the NFL would intervene and get their ducks in a row before presenting it to the public.
As a Bears fan and using that as my only frame of reference, I feel unable to understand the "now" part of the question.
More black QBs. 2014 there were 3 or 4; 2024 there are 12 or 13.
Lamar in MVP seasons - 208/gm (28th) and 229/gm (16th)
Cam Newton MVP season - 239/gm (23rd)
Even Vick, in his top 5 MVP voting seasons prior to rule changes -154/gm (32nd) and 195/gm (19th)
The broader idea of exceptional black QB play does not incentivize passing yards per game. And the rules have made it easier to get away with a weaker arm. And media pressures (e.g. Mina Kimes/Steve Ruiz and their dimwitted campaign for Tyrod Taylor over Josh Allen).
It’s a truism in boxing that to fix a fight properly you get to the ref, not the fighters.
I am speculating wildly with no stats to back me up, but I wonder if the rise of college QBs jumping from one program to the next is leaving them less prepared to succeed in the NFL? They miss out on developing skills in a consistent environment over 3-4 years and instead have to focus on learning a new playbook/system, players, etc. every 9 months or so.
Great article. Widen the field to juice the offense and then go from 100 yards to 100 meters to internationalize the game and make first downs slightly harder to throw a bone to the defense.
Eliminate kickoffs by spotting the ball at the 30 after a score (unless the scoring team wants to go for an onside kick). Make the extra point truly automatic unless the scoring team wants to risk it by going for two. Keep the clock running on incomplete passes except within the final minutes of the halves (to match out of bounds plays).
Replace those eliminated plays and resultant contact by adding an 18th game and an extra bye week.
Overall result is more football that’s slightly safer, higher scoring, broader reaching and faster poised to somehow dominate even more than it already does.
Is football becoming more like soccer, not in play … but where your worst player matters more than your best player? And how exploit the worst player?
I think the freakeconomics people wrote about this. NBA is the opposite, your best player matters the most …
Are NfL coaches not recognizing the weakest link on D or are D coaches better at disguising the weak player?
Personally I think 2-high has had more to do with the decline in offense. But ur point also works great for the nba. The proliferation of spacing has made things so much easier for the top scorers. The three greatest offensive seasons from the 2010’s imo (2014 kd, 2016 curry, 2019 harden) are all blown out of the water by Luka, embiid, and Giannis this year. Is it because they are that much better? No. It’s the amount of space they have to operate. Even sga shot the ball at a ridiculously efficient rate on mostly jumpers. People who want to move the 3pt line back fundamentally don’t understand that that would create even more space for these stars to operate in. NBA players are very skilled and could find a way to make a 3 that’s two feet farther. I think Colin cowherds idea of taking away the corner 3 would be very smart. It would throw a wrench into modern spacing and bring back midrange scoring.
Change to 7 on 7
More space, best of the best, salaries increase for everyone, more scoring, let's go
I wonder if QB evaluation has fallen behind the metrics a bit.
In other words, were the QBs who were pronounced "busts" really busts? Or were they too quickly regarded as such as they were being evaluated by the standards of the previous era, and teams wanted to take another spin at the wheel to see if they landed on a franchise QB (e.g. the Bears dumping Justin Fields to get a chance at Caleb Williams).
This year, we've seen teams have success with QBs who were dumped by their original teams and regarded as busts -- Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield. Going back a bit, Geno Smith and Ryan Tannehill enjoyed career renaissances. Maybe they got wiser with age, or maybe they were discrded too early.