Why Are All the Quarterbacks Bad Now?

A stupidly simple explanation of modern offensive shrinkage

So I have a stupidly simple theory on why quarterback play has glaringly declined in recent years. Patrick Mahomes, the league’s best quarterback, is an illustrative example. Few would dispute he’s still great, and at age 28, he’s theoretically square in his prime. In 2017, Mahomes’ first full season as a starter, he threw for an astounding 5,097 yards (in 16 games), 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Last season, which ended in Mahomes winning Super Bowl MVP, he produced 4,183 yards, 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Much was made of the Chiefs’ lack of offensive weapons last year, which they sought to upgrade this offseason. So far, through two games in which Kansas City narrowly won, Mahomes’ production remains well off his customary standard (221 yards per game, 46.7 QBR).

So do I think the most decorated quarterback in the league is mediocre now? No, not at all. This is just one data point in an overall trend. A quarterback whose skills and experience should be merging in a way that crushes the sport is now grinding out victories and trusting his defense. One popular explanation for this result is that this is a newly savvy quarterback, downshifting in accordance with team needs. Maybe there’s some of that, but I believe the bigger factor is this: Playing quarterback got a lot harder over the span of Mahomes’ still brief career.

For a long time, the narrative on the NFL was, “They don’t let you play defense anymore!” That narrative had some basis, given that a few offense friendly rule changes were implemented, starting with the 2004 crackdown on grabbing wide receivers. Over the years, many a fan complained as flags penalized defensive hits that had once been celebrated. There was a particular penalty sensitivity surrounding quarterbacks, the league’s biggest stars.

And yet, here we are, with NFL offenses sputtering, and the majority of first round quarterbacks going bust. As discussed with Warren Sharp on this podcast the main driver of offensive decline is a drop off in the passing game. Despite a stated new reform on “hip drop” tackles, offense felt no more free in the first couple weeks of 2024.

There’s been widespread consternation among football commentators around young quarterbacks and their tendency to flop. Bryce Young, last season’s number 1 overall pick, is already getting benched. Caleb Williams, the much hyped number 1 overall pick for this season, has looked broadly awful through two games for a stacked Bears team. CJ Stroud, last season’s Number 2 overall pick, is now a loud exception for being the rare high first rounder who delivers a positive impact. Stroud aside, we’re getting conditioned to expect failure from the most coveted young talents.

Defensive Shrinkage Theory

Some have blamed an overall decline in offensive line play. Some have posited that a trend towards resting offensive players in the preseason has led to ineffectiveness. I’m not dismissive of these theories, but I’ve got my own general explanation for why QBs are struggling: Bigger, faster, stronger…shrinks.

Here’s what I mean.

1. There’s a finite amount of space on a field of play.

2. Space advantages the offense.

3. In this environment, if offensive and defensive players improve at occupying space at equivalent rates, defenses gain an advantage.

Offense initially managed to gain on defense following aforementioned rule changes in 2004. The boom was part rules based, but also culture. “Three yards and a cloud of dust” style coaches gave way to coaches who understood that throwing the ball was just more efficient. Now, we’re in an era where a lot of that low hanging strategy fruit has been gobbled up. Everybody is throwing a lot, and defenses have adjusted.

Every season, available draft picks are, as a rule in sports, bigger, faster and stronger. We even see this with field goal kickers. As Mike Tirico noted on last night’s Sunday Night Football broadcast, a 50 yarder used to be a big deal, but now it’s almost expected to go in (Note: Curiously, the massive improvement in field goal kicking has not led to an overall boost in offense). When player contracts are worth millions if not tens of millions, capacity gets better over time.

I’d bet this rule extends to quarterbacks but here’s the problem, as my three part list notes: There’s a finite amount of space, and it’s increasingly crowded by more effective defensive players. Even if modern quarterbacks can run faster and throw the ball farther than past iterations, they largely can’t overcome this collective space shrinkage. Sure, your top wide receiver now runs a 4.3 40 yard dash, whereas he would have run 4.5 ten years ago. But when the ball is in the air, he’s being chased by multiple defensive players who run a clip quicker than in years past. Now, instead of one 4.5 cornerback chasing your target, to go along with two 4.7 safeties, you’ve got a 4.3 corner and two 4.5 safeties. The overall effect is that there’s just less field.

If you don’t believe me, consider how the rate of goal scoring in hockey increases by 279 percent in a 3-on-3 overtime set up. When there’s more space on the ice, offense is easier to come by. The same rule applies in soccer when pitch sizes are increased. Obviously these comparison sports have their own rules and factors that inform scoring boom/bust cycles, but I believe you’d at least accept the hypothetical that, if the football field was wider, offenses would greatly benefit.

Much has been written here about NBA scoring increases vs. decreases, which are heavily impacted by rule changes. Pro basketball intentionally goosed points production over the last couple decades by allowing less defensive contact (Before they shifted the other direction last midseason), and the strategic embrace of three point shooting massively helped offenses. Not only are modern teams drawing from the well of a shot that’s worth more, but the 3-point emphasis pulls defenses out, generating more space inside.

As mentioned previously, the NFL has already had its version of the 3-point revolution by getting “pass happy.” With passing efficiency now on the wane, teams are going the other direction and running the ball more. Perhaps this shift will prove fruitful, but I doubt that it’ll result in a lot more points. End of day, you’re stuck with the same problem as before: Better defensive players, shrinking space ever more so.

I would guess that if quarterbacks are to flourish as they did in the recent past, the change won’t be rooted in strategy. As happened in 2004, the big reform will occur not in the quarterback rooms, but in the league office. Games, if left to their own devices, usually just go the way of the defense. When refs swallow the whistle, as happens in playoff games, scoring disappears as well. The only way to truly free the QB is likely rule changes that will, at least for a time, annoy fans. I’m not proposing it, but given that I’m discussing a money conscious sport, obsessed with promoting quarterbacks, I am predicting it. If space cannot be found by the quarterback, it will be legislated into existence.