The NBA's Most Popular Scandal

How new age ref incompetence may underpin a result most fans love

So I had Tom Haberstroh on the podcast, in the aftermath of his fine coverage on the NBA’s irregular drop in scoring, post All-Star break. I kept asking Tom to take the plunge with me and explicitly posit that the NBA had a role in refs suddenly calling far fewer fouls, a role they’d been denying until, well, Friday night (we’ll get into that limited hangout from the league).

Careful Tom declined to go as far as I did, which inspired me to push him a bit on the topic. I asked if any other theory might explain the significant changes. While he couldn’t wholly endorse an alternative hypothesis, Haberstroh noted a factor of interest:

The thing that I also think about is, a coach talked to me the other day about this. Referees are a lot younger now. Why does that matter? Well, younger referees tend not to call as many fouls. If you look at the all time leaders in foul rates, referees wise, it’s like Scott Foster, it’s veteran guys.

I didn’t realize it at the time, but I think Tom’s youth refereeing point is highly relevant to outcomes like the average Vegas over/under crashing. In January, total points lines registered a 232.7 average. There are eight games this Monday night and total points is set at 218.9. This is a staggering dive and it defies the NBA’s initial framing of “statistical anomaly.”

I doubt, though many fans are pleased with reduced scoring, the NBA wanted a result this pronounced. So how did it happen? And why has the league seemed so defensively evasive when trying to address it? We’ll get into it, and subscribe today if you haven’t already. Becoming an HoS supporter contributes to the nascent, “Hopefully I Don’t Get Sued for Talking About the Sports Leagues and Gambling Fund.” Let’s get into the NBA’s most popular scandal.