IMO all the playoff talk is diluting it a bit. But turn on a game whether it's a top 10 battle or its Iowa-Iowa State. People - fans, players, coaches - care a lot about winning the game. More than any other American sport, just winning a game is meaningful, regardless of playoff implications or anything else. That transmits to viewers and makes it better to watch.
Football is a scarcity sport. Every play matters so much more than a random strikeout or a jumpshot clanking off the rim. The NFL is appointment viewing because you only get to see your team play 17 times a year — any more than that and you're super lucky. (I'm a Lions fan.)
In college football, every play matters even more than the NFL. For most programs, one loss knocks them out of the chance of reaching the national championship. The four-team playoff makes it so every bowl outside of the CFP means nothing. A participation trophy, and nobody wants that!
There's probably a better, data-driven answer, but I think fans are yearning for sports where the regular season matters — and I'd argue no other sport has a regular season that matters more than college football. NBA, NHL, and MLB regular seasons mean nothing. Look at the Bucks, Bruins and Dodgers first round exits in this calendar year alone.
I'd be very curious to know if this viewership increases when the CFP expands to 12 teams. Will more fans feel like they have a chance and tune in, or is there always going to be a spot for the Penn State's and Oregon's now under the new format?
It’s the only sport where the fans truly feel like a part of the team they root for just in the sense that the majority of them went to the school. You truly feel represented by the team on the field. I went to ole miss, I’m an ole miss fan (obviously) yeah we will never win a championship in my lifetime, but I would want an ole miss football championship more than any pro sports team I root for. It’s also more fun to watch than the nfl, upsets feel bigger, the passion is more real, the atmospheres are infinitely better, it’s not as corporate yet (but this conference realignment bullshit is making it that way and it sucks) the rivalries are so much more real. If you went to a football school I just don’t know how you can like the nfl more.
I attribute this to three things: 1) continuity; 2) portion control; 3; intermittent variable rewards (IVR, the same thing that makes gambling addictive).
Continuity is obvious. I grew up watching college football with my male relatives, some of whom are no longer around, and some of whom are at ages where I have to grapple with the knowledge that they won't be around forever. Each year that we get to spend watching our teams together, even if it's over the phone or text in different cities, compounds and adds to the history we've been building for decades. Each annual game is not only an excuse to interact, but a reminder of years past, homes we've watched in, long-gone dogs and cats we watched next to, and so on.
And that brings me to portion control: as long and storied as some of these rivalries and traditions are, when you get right down to it you still have a very small number of discrete events that you're dealing with. The Yankees play the Red Sox dozens of times, and while certain matchups stand out, so many of them blur together that's impossible to really construct a coherent timeline of your life as a fan. But with college football the games are meted out on an annual basis, meaning you can easily recall decades of fandom at a time, as well as (if your relatives are morbid and prone to melancholia as mine are) think about the small and dwindling amount of future games you might yet get to share. It enhances the value and importance of each matchup and makes impossible to pull away.
Which brings up IVR. My family and I cheer for teams that have had awful losing streaks. Not just, "oh, we'll get them next year" sorts of streaks, but lengthy, depressing, "you'd think at some point the gods would tire of punishing us" streaks. But the thing is, occasionally those teams would show flashes of breaking those streaks, reminding you of dim memories of your team actually winning when you were far younger - and you'd feel like a completely different person, if only for a moment. That kept us hooked, knowing that one day, probably, those streaks would end. And when they did, I cannot describe the adrenaline laced with morphine like euphoria of those moments. Once you feel that, you chase it constantly, and I don't think I can ever detox. With college sports through it’s always a crapshoot - sometimes the teenagers in the uniforms you cheer for do well, sometimes they don’t. They’re unpredictable to a point of inscrutability. When you watch a game, you really can’t tell if you’re going to feel a crushing low or a supreme high. But I can’t stop myself from pulling the lever time and time again on fall Saturdays to see what happens.
From an outsider’s perspective looking in (I’m from Australia), college football (and college sports more generally) has a real authenticity to it that is lacking from professional sporting leagues. For most of these guys college football will be the pinnacle of their sporting careers. I’m not an American football guy, but I just enjoy watching college football for the fanfare and theatre. Seems like a lot of fun. Also, the students seem to be having an awesome time. Would’ve loved to have spent a year at a US college and joining in all the fun. Love your work, Ethan 🤙
I think that CFB has the same secret sauce that many national soccer systems around the world have - a durable tiered structure. Every team belongs to a given tier of competitiveness and has its own peers. Thus every team has a different set of expectations for a given season and multiple fan bases can leave happy. In American pro sports there is usually only one meaningful trophy and many fan bases know before the season even starts that it's out of reach for them this year. By way of contrast my college team beating our rival, winning our conference, and winning our bowl game are meaningful results in addition to winning the national championship. Tiers also help because teams can move up and down in tier over time and a good run of form over multiple seasons can substantially change a program's long-term outlook. Additionally the short term nature of CFB players means that there is little opportunity for players to exceed teams in fan's loyalty so the fan bases are more durable. Finally, football is really the province of big state schools rather than small private schools and big state schools aren't suffering from enrollment issues to nearly the same degree as small private schools.
All that said - I do think that the increasing consolidation of CFB will be harmful in the long run because it threatens the dynamics in the previous paragraph but for a couple years it will be a ratings bonanza because a lot of big teams that never played each-other before will do so regularly.
NIL has concentrated talent in the top 60 programs making them better while also allowing them to retain talented (but marginal NFL) upperclassmen
Conference realignment makes for more opportunities for competitive and meaningful games
College quirks allow stars to be stars (coaches, QBs, other fun stories) versus NFL blandness (and I love the NFL and it obviously doesn’t hurt it)
That’s why I’m long on college football while so many bemoan the changes and wring their hands about the loss of tradition and regional games - I’ll be sad as well when super league of 40 teams is formed and a bunch of teams are left out but the games will be more watched and attended than ever and the money will be 1B to the NFL’s 1A (and the players will finally get paid).
College Football is regionalism personified, every team has their fans from either going there, or living nearby or some variation on that. I also have more loyalty to my college team than I ever could to a professional sports team because they can't just uproot the team and sell it two towns over, it's always going to be here.
The school to one degree or another also rep's a community, and it's usually smaller communities and more unique communities that grew up around a University. The biggest brands in College are usually not in the biggest cities in their states and they can and do thrive on the local support that can turn into national support (Tuscaloosa, Athens, Austin, Norman, Columbus, Eugene, Happy Valley, Ann Arbor, South Bend are not NY or LA but are all name brand college football destinations). It seems like in College at least the larger the city the less likely they are to have a great college football team, there are exceptions to this though.
I've been season ticket holder to a University for 20 years now and it's not been all winning, some losing seasons have been in there but enough winning to keep it worthwhile and I have also travelled to many away games. Oxford Mississippi is not a place most people would ever visit except someone that knows/loves college football and their tailgate at The Grove is epic and worthwhile, when I was there a few years ago they'd say they didn't "win a lot of games but didn't lose a tailgate".
Each game for a major program matters, many in pursuit of a conference championship or playoff birth. There are numerous baked in rivalries with decades of history. More people than ever in America are going to college, increasing the number of invested parties YoY. People love the strategy + violence of football and college is a sloppier and more variant version of the highly polished NFL product. The inventory of gambling helps. And NIL came along as (imo) more Americans than ever have a “get your money” ethos to their fellow man. There’s less bitterness to a teenager getting paid and the aggrieved still want to watch ball. They just have another thing to blame poor play on.
College Football is more fun. You get the benefit of dynasty football with regional matchups that the fans care about. You have - this year - a ton of good quarterbacks (which usually leads to good football). You have run heavy teams, pass heavy teams, and a variety of different schemes. College Football has better pregame shows than even the pros (even though the NFL is impervious to inept pregame shows). Finally, you have a lot more personality in the college game this year.
I think the combination of conference realignment and continued domination by a few teams has helped. The college football landscape was overwhelming for a casual fan when they felt like they had to stay abreast of 130 teams. Now you can "follow" the sport by really keeping tabs on 10-12 teams. I don't personally love this development, but I think it makes it easier to digest and market the sport.
CFB is more fun because the game play is not professionalized, optimized, and homogenized by modern analytics. As we just saw in USC-UU, the game is still dominated by heart, fluky plays, and prayer.
People care about the games. Period.
IMO all the playoff talk is diluting it a bit. But turn on a game whether it's a top 10 battle or its Iowa-Iowa State. People - fans, players, coaches - care a lot about winning the game. More than any other American sport, just winning a game is meaningful, regardless of playoff implications or anything else. That transmits to viewers and makes it better to watch.
Football is a scarcity sport. Every play matters so much more than a random strikeout or a jumpshot clanking off the rim. The NFL is appointment viewing because you only get to see your team play 17 times a year — any more than that and you're super lucky. (I'm a Lions fan.)
In college football, every play matters even more than the NFL. For most programs, one loss knocks them out of the chance of reaching the national championship. The four-team playoff makes it so every bowl outside of the CFP means nothing. A participation trophy, and nobody wants that!
There's probably a better, data-driven answer, but I think fans are yearning for sports where the regular season matters — and I'd argue no other sport has a regular season that matters more than college football. NBA, NHL, and MLB regular seasons mean nothing. Look at the Bucks, Bruins and Dodgers first round exits in this calendar year alone.
I'd be very curious to know if this viewership increases when the CFP expands to 12 teams. Will more fans feel like they have a chance and tune in, or is there always going to be a spot for the Penn State's and Oregon's now under the new format?
It’s the only sport where the fans truly feel like a part of the team they root for just in the sense that the majority of them went to the school. You truly feel represented by the team on the field. I went to ole miss, I’m an ole miss fan (obviously) yeah we will never win a championship in my lifetime, but I would want an ole miss football championship more than any pro sports team I root for. It’s also more fun to watch than the nfl, upsets feel bigger, the passion is more real, the atmospheres are infinitely better, it’s not as corporate yet (but this conference realignment bullshit is making it that way and it sucks) the rivalries are so much more real. If you went to a football school I just don’t know how you can like the nfl more.
I attribute this to three things: 1) continuity; 2) portion control; 3; intermittent variable rewards (IVR, the same thing that makes gambling addictive).
Continuity is obvious. I grew up watching college football with my male relatives, some of whom are no longer around, and some of whom are at ages where I have to grapple with the knowledge that they won't be around forever. Each year that we get to spend watching our teams together, even if it's over the phone or text in different cities, compounds and adds to the history we've been building for decades. Each annual game is not only an excuse to interact, but a reminder of years past, homes we've watched in, long-gone dogs and cats we watched next to, and so on.
And that brings me to portion control: as long and storied as some of these rivalries and traditions are, when you get right down to it you still have a very small number of discrete events that you're dealing with. The Yankees play the Red Sox dozens of times, and while certain matchups stand out, so many of them blur together that's impossible to really construct a coherent timeline of your life as a fan. But with college football the games are meted out on an annual basis, meaning you can easily recall decades of fandom at a time, as well as (if your relatives are morbid and prone to melancholia as mine are) think about the small and dwindling amount of future games you might yet get to share. It enhances the value and importance of each matchup and makes impossible to pull away.
Which brings up IVR. My family and I cheer for teams that have had awful losing streaks. Not just, "oh, we'll get them next year" sorts of streaks, but lengthy, depressing, "you'd think at some point the gods would tire of punishing us" streaks. But the thing is, occasionally those teams would show flashes of breaking those streaks, reminding you of dim memories of your team actually winning when you were far younger - and you'd feel like a completely different person, if only for a moment. That kept us hooked, knowing that one day, probably, those streaks would end. And when they did, I cannot describe the adrenaline laced with morphine like euphoria of those moments. Once you feel that, you chase it constantly, and I don't think I can ever detox. With college sports through it’s always a crapshoot - sometimes the teenagers in the uniforms you cheer for do well, sometimes they don’t. They’re unpredictable to a point of inscrutability. When you watch a game, you really can’t tell if you’re going to feel a crushing low or a supreme high. But I can’t stop myself from pulling the lever time and time again on fall Saturdays to see what happens.
From an outsider’s perspective looking in (I’m from Australia), college football (and college sports more generally) has a real authenticity to it that is lacking from professional sporting leagues. For most of these guys college football will be the pinnacle of their sporting careers. I’m not an American football guy, but I just enjoy watching college football for the fanfare and theatre. Seems like a lot of fun. Also, the students seem to be having an awesome time. Would’ve loved to have spent a year at a US college and joining in all the fun. Love your work, Ethan 🤙
High stakes, low volume sports are surviving -- NFL, college football, UFC, World Cup, Champions League, Premier League.
High volume, low stakes sports are getting crushed -- MLB, NBA, MLS.
I think that CFB has the same secret sauce that many national soccer systems around the world have - a durable tiered structure. Every team belongs to a given tier of competitiveness and has its own peers. Thus every team has a different set of expectations for a given season and multiple fan bases can leave happy. In American pro sports there is usually only one meaningful trophy and many fan bases know before the season even starts that it's out of reach for them this year. By way of contrast my college team beating our rival, winning our conference, and winning our bowl game are meaningful results in addition to winning the national championship. Tiers also help because teams can move up and down in tier over time and a good run of form over multiple seasons can substantially change a program's long-term outlook. Additionally the short term nature of CFB players means that there is little opportunity for players to exceed teams in fan's loyalty so the fan bases are more durable. Finally, football is really the province of big state schools rather than small private schools and big state schools aren't suffering from enrollment issues to nearly the same degree as small private schools.
All that said - I do think that the increasing consolidation of CFB will be harmful in the long run because it threatens the dynamics in the previous paragraph but for a couple years it will be a ratings bonanza because a lot of big teams that never played each-other before will do so regularly.
They played during Covid
NIL has concentrated talent in the top 60 programs making them better while also allowing them to retain talented (but marginal NFL) upperclassmen
Conference realignment makes for more opportunities for competitive and meaningful games
College quirks allow stars to be stars (coaches, QBs, other fun stories) versus NFL blandness (and I love the NFL and it obviously doesn’t hurt it)
That’s why I’m long on college football while so many bemoan the changes and wring their hands about the loss of tradition and regional games - I’ll be sad as well when super league of 40 teams is formed and a bunch of teams are left out but the games will be more watched and attended than ever and the money will be 1B to the NFL’s 1A (and the players will finally get paid).
College Football is regionalism personified, every team has their fans from either going there, or living nearby or some variation on that. I also have more loyalty to my college team than I ever could to a professional sports team because they can't just uproot the team and sell it two towns over, it's always going to be here.
The school to one degree or another also rep's a community, and it's usually smaller communities and more unique communities that grew up around a University. The biggest brands in College are usually not in the biggest cities in their states and they can and do thrive on the local support that can turn into national support (Tuscaloosa, Athens, Austin, Norman, Columbus, Eugene, Happy Valley, Ann Arbor, South Bend are not NY or LA but are all name brand college football destinations). It seems like in College at least the larger the city the less likely they are to have a great college football team, there are exceptions to this though.
I've been season ticket holder to a University for 20 years now and it's not been all winning, some losing seasons have been in there but enough winning to keep it worthwhile and I have also travelled to many away games. Oxford Mississippi is not a place most people would ever visit except someone that knows/loves college football and their tailgate at The Grove is epic and worthwhile, when I was there a few years ago they'd say they didn't "win a lot of games but didn't lose a tailgate".
Each game for a major program matters, many in pursuit of a conference championship or playoff birth. There are numerous baked in rivalries with decades of history. More people than ever in America are going to college, increasing the number of invested parties YoY. People love the strategy + violence of football and college is a sloppier and more variant version of the highly polished NFL product. The inventory of gambling helps. And NIL came along as (imo) more Americans than ever have a “get your money” ethos to their fellow man. There’s less bitterness to a teenager getting paid and the aggrieved still want to watch ball. They just have another thing to blame poor play on.
College Football is more fun. You get the benefit of dynasty football with regional matchups that the fans care about. You have - this year - a ton of good quarterbacks (which usually leads to good football). You have run heavy teams, pass heavy teams, and a variety of different schemes. College Football has better pregame shows than even the pros (even though the NFL is impervious to inept pregame shows). Finally, you have a lot more personality in the college game this year.
I think the combination of conference realignment and continued domination by a few teams has helped. The college football landscape was overwhelming for a casual fan when they felt like they had to stay abreast of 130 teams. Now you can "follow" the sport by really keeping tabs on 10-12 teams. I don't personally love this development, but I think it makes it easier to digest and market the sport.
CFB is more fun because the game play is not professionalized, optimized, and homogenized by modern analytics. As we just saw in USC-UU, the game is still dominated by heart, fluky plays, and prayer.
Ain't nothing finer in the land than a drunk obnoxious Georgia fan!!!
People love mess and tribalism
People like monoculture, they miss the monoculture, and they’ll seek out the best versions of it.