Why the NBA’s Bubble Won’t Burst

Sports, even when THIS reckless, is too big to fail

This week, in some quarters of the internet, I’m receiving credit for predicting Nike’s collapse in 2021. I love getting praised for prophecy and it’s all the better in this instance because it’s undeserved. In 2021, I did not predict Nike’s awesome stock fall from $157.59 per share down to $39.09 on Monday. I just described how and why the company was functioning in a way that seemed wrong. Somehow, in retrospect, this criticism retroactively gets metabolized as a forecast, even if it wasn’t.

There’s a large gap between, “This isn’t best practices” and “This will burn everything to the ground.” I’ve made negative observations about institutions that financially thrive. The NBA is one such entity, though it seems others are more critical than I am these days. Right now, commissioner Adam Silver is catching a lot of flak for turning the league into one big billionaire casino. Joe Pompliano tells us that a margin call of owner Mat Ishbia might force a Phoenix Suns sale. John Ourand reports that spiraling owner Mark Walter desperately tried to cash out of the Lakers and Dodgers long-term TV deals.

This all seems bad and out of control. It feels like the NBA is playing with fire and is about to get majorly burned for its indulgence of speculative greed. But sports is a funny business that can tolerate a lot of funny business. The NBA is arguably bubble-proof and Adam Silver is testing out that theory to the max. And I think I believe the theory. Here’s why.