I think Point 4 is among the strongest counter arguments to the Purdy naysayers. Sure Mac Jones was solid, but the offense clearly hit another gear once Purdy returned. I felt it was obvious from the eye test that Purdy made the offense far more dynamic, but it bears out in EPA as well
On draftism, I'm wondering if there's a line where it crosses from being part of the story to a detriment.
Tom Brady was famously drafted in the 6th round, after six QBs, and this became part of the legend, and how he used this as a motivating factor. It didn't hurt him in gaining recognition, and maybe even helped.
Brock Purdy was the literal last pick, but only one round later. Does literally being "Mr. Irrelevant" mean more, that calling him an elite QB is thumbing one's nose at the entire talent evaluation community?
Or is it just that Brady's accomplishments were so undeniable that it didn't matter? And the other factors weren't as relevant? Belichik was renowned as a great coach, but not a QB whisperer or offensive genius. Until Gronk and Randy Moss arrived, the rest of the offense wasn't being compared to comic book heroes. And Brady's style wasn't unique -- he was just very competitive and very good. He was, generally, a standard pocket QB.
At this point in Purdy's career, Brady had won two super bowls. If Purdy had two chips I bet the conversation would be very different because of #RINGZ
One more thing is that Belichick ended up actively choosing Brady over Bledsoe as his QB for a team that had a chance to (and actually did) win the Super Bowl, whereas my memory is that Purdy ended up as the Niners QB because they lacked other options.
As you say Belichick rightfully did not have a reputation as a QB whisperer, running a state of the art, innovative offense. His previous quarterbacks did fine, and his system was not designed to have them do better than fine. Brady played better than Bledsoe, and Bledsoe was considered something like a tier 2 guy. So you had really good play, in a system that wasn’t necessarily designed for it, and a direct comparison with a good QB, who Brady outplayed.
Purdy plays in a top three system, with a top three play caller, and generally plays slightly better according to the stats than the mediocre quarterbacks (Mac Jones, Jimmy, etc..) who are plugged into that system. He also has mediocre measurable, etc.. the right ranking for him, depending on the year, is probably in that 6 to 12 range. Which is generally where he is ranked if we had to do an aggregate.
This whole thing continues to be a non-story, if Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Drake Maye, Caleb, or Stafford is offered for him, and Shanahan is trying to win a Super Bowl within the next two years, he’s taking that trade without thinking about it (Jackson might have scheme fit issues). That next group of Herbert, Prescott etc… is basically a tossup and Brock falls into that group.
I wonder how someone like Gruden era Derek Carr would do in that system…
“Nowhere near” is your exaggeration that you won’t actually find in my comment. If you want to argue that the regime that spent significant capital on Lance wouldn’t swap Purdy for Caleb then that’s a position I guess, but I’m sure you would be wrong. And they would do it because Caleb has better traits almost across the board, had a pretty good year for a 24-year-old quarterback, and showed market improvement once he got into a good system with good coaching— improvement, which is a safe bet to continue this years. They would swap him for the same reason the Chiefs swapped a very good Alex Smith for an unproven Mahomes.
I am the one saying that Caleb is nowhere near Brock. Brock throws further, completes at a higher rate, and is sacked less. Not that it matters, but they are the same height, and two years in, Brock had a much better win-loss record (including two NFC Championship Games). What traits are you looking at that put Caleb ahead?
I do hear you about Trey Lance, and the Niner organization quite often makes bad mistakes (see York, Jed). They got very lucky drafting Purdy because he was the only one left from that draft on the team.
I know this is about production versus reputation, not whether Purdy is a winner or whatever, but I think #NORINGZ (courtesy of https://sasha467577.substack.com/) affects how people evaluate him overall, rightly or wrongly.
BACK TO THE ORIGINAL MUSE! THANK YOU ETHAN FOR YOUR HARD 4 AM WORK!
Excited for another year of injuries and losing to the Seahawks lol
I think Point 4 is among the strongest counter arguments to the Purdy naysayers. Sure Mac Jones was solid, but the offense clearly hit another gear once Purdy returned. I felt it was obvious from the eye test that Purdy made the offense far more dynamic, but it bears out in EPA as well
On draftism, I'm wondering if there's a line where it crosses from being part of the story to a detriment.
Tom Brady was famously drafted in the 6th round, after six QBs, and this became part of the legend, and how he used this as a motivating factor. It didn't hurt him in gaining recognition, and maybe even helped.
Brock Purdy was the literal last pick, but only one round later. Does literally being "Mr. Irrelevant" mean more, that calling him an elite QB is thumbing one's nose at the entire talent evaluation community?
Or is it just that Brady's accomplishments were so undeniable that it didn't matter? And the other factors weren't as relevant? Belichik was renowned as a great coach, but not a QB whisperer or offensive genius. Until Gronk and Randy Moss arrived, the rest of the offense wasn't being compared to comic book heroes. And Brady's style wasn't unique -- he was just very competitive and very good. He was, generally, a standard pocket QB.
At this point in Purdy's career, Brady had won two super bowls. If Purdy had two chips I bet the conversation would be very different because of #RINGZ
One more thing is that Belichick ended up actively choosing Brady over Bledsoe as his QB for a team that had a chance to (and actually did) win the Super Bowl, whereas my memory is that Purdy ended up as the Niners QB because they lacked other options.
i.e. Trey Lance was a bust; Drew Bledsoe was not.
As you say Belichick rightfully did not have a reputation as a QB whisperer, running a state of the art, innovative offense. His previous quarterbacks did fine, and his system was not designed to have them do better than fine. Brady played better than Bledsoe, and Bledsoe was considered something like a tier 2 guy. So you had really good play, in a system that wasn’t necessarily designed for it, and a direct comparison with a good QB, who Brady outplayed.
Purdy plays in a top three system, with a top three play caller, and generally plays slightly better according to the stats than the mediocre quarterbacks (Mac Jones, Jimmy, etc..) who are plugged into that system. He also has mediocre measurable, etc.. the right ranking for him, depending on the year, is probably in that 6 to 12 range. Which is generally where he is ranked if we had to do an aggregate.
This whole thing continues to be a non-story, if Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Drake Maye, Caleb, or Stafford is offered for him, and Shanahan is trying to win a Super Bowl within the next two years, he’s taking that trade without thinking about it (Jackson might have scheme fit issues). That next group of Herbert, Prescott etc… is basically a tossup and Brock falls into that group.
I wonder how someone like Gruden era Derek Carr would do in that system…
Caleb? Nowhere near Purdy. What are you basing that on?
“Nowhere near” is your exaggeration that you won’t actually find in my comment. If you want to argue that the regime that spent significant capital on Lance wouldn’t swap Purdy for Caleb then that’s a position I guess, but I’m sure you would be wrong. And they would do it because Caleb has better traits almost across the board, had a pretty good year for a 24-year-old quarterback, and showed market improvement once he got into a good system with good coaching— improvement, which is a safe bet to continue this years. They would swap him for the same reason the Chiefs swapped a very good Alex Smith for an unproven Mahomes.
I am the one saying that Caleb is nowhere near Brock. Brock throws further, completes at a higher rate, and is sacked less. Not that it matters, but they are the same height, and two years in, Brock had a much better win-loss record (including two NFC Championship Games). What traits are you looking at that put Caleb ahead?
I do hear you about Trey Lance, and the Niner organization quite often makes bad mistakes (see York, Jed). They got very lucky drafting Purdy because he was the only one left from that draft on the team.
I know this is about production versus reputation, not whether Purdy is a winner or whatever, but I think #NORINGZ (courtesy of https://sasha467577.substack.com/) affects how people evaluate him overall, rightly or wrongly.
The timing of Niners 2024 post-SB drop-off, when most eyeballs were on the team, confirmed for many that Purdys 2023 performance was a mirage
a mirage with more playoff wins than perennial mvp candidate and beloved qb lamar jackson
Niners under shanahan have followed both SB appearances with down years.
As for Purdy, I do think, while not his fault, 2024 season solidified doubters' perception of him
Muse: Brock of Transformer station