The Brock Purdy Extension Take

NBA media is smarter about big contracts than NFL media

Brock Purdy, House of Strauss Muse of 2023, hasn’t been mentioned much here of late. Subscriber LD demands his return though, in reaction to the NFL’s most affordable quarterback finally getting paid.

LD:

Excuse me some of us are House of Strauss subscribers purely for Purdy takes and it’s been DAYS since the extension.

What are the contract details? In the NFL, those always exist somewhere between the tangible and imaginary. One takeaway is that Brock’s “5 year, $265 million” contract ranks only 14th as percentage of cap in year signed. The other is that $181 million of that deal is guaranteed, with $165.05 million in guarantees coming in the first three years. Basically, for all the sticker shock and sense of a big commitment, this contract is essentially, “three and we’ll see.” Which is a pretty good deal, from the 49ers perspective. I worry about Purdy getting hurt, given past throwing arm injuries, but this is not a long commitment. He gets paid, but also has to prove it going forward.

My take on this is less about Brock and more about, for all its faults, NBA media tends to be more logical about big contracts than NFL media. Maybe we’re just so annoyingly player-pleasing that it actually leads to greater common sense on talent acquisition.

It’s been beaten into us that a range of players are worth “max contract.” We don’t get into Chris Simms-style high dudgeon over who gets paid, even if we might disagree with a deal. We don’t bat an eye when a lower tier All-Star gets huge money, because we’ve internalized that there’s no plausible way to replace the guy.

The NFL lacks the “max contract” ceiling, but a similar logic applies. If your quarterback is good, you pay big money because there’s no easy way to acquire a quarterback who’s great. You’re offended that Josh Allen makes roughly what Brock Purdy makes? Got it, but abstaining from paying Purdy doesn’t place you in an auction where you get to bid on Josh Allen. Allen is off limits, as is Patrick Mahomes. Your options will be aging veterans with checkered pasts or the bust-probable act of drafting a rookie QB. Your choice is between, “quarterback who understands this system and has performed well” or “the great unknown, which usually fails.” It’s easy to say you’d opt for the latter, but you probably wouldn’t if it was your job on the line.

With its salary cap, NFL team building seems like managing a household budget, where you must be prudent with every dollar spent. There’s an aspect of that, but the sport is more about nailing cost controlled draft picks than ruthlessly pinching pennies on your main guys. Why? It’s because the structure of the NFL CBA advantages teams to keep their very best players, which greatly depresses the quality of what can be signed in free agency. If you manage to negotiate your quarterback down $10 million from his original asking price…congrats on the veteran safety with injury issues you can add now?

It’s fashionable in NFL media to say, “I’d like X quarterback at $45 million but NOT $55 million,” but the difference, while meaningful, is also potentially marginal. Star veteran skill position guys are always getting hurt. It’s a violent game. Established quarterback production tends to be more stable than, say, what you’re getting from a top cornerback season to season. The point is, if you’ve an issue with a starting quarterback signing, the problem isn’t so much the money. The issue is that they’re bad.

I get the argument that Purdy is the type of guy to perform well when there’s expensive surrounding talent, and those conditions are over. We’ll see, but last season was an injury riddled disaster, and he still finished 7th in QBR and the Niners were 4th in passing DVOA. Maybe you think those numbers are deceptive because the late game interceptions were so galling. Fair enough. Maybe you think he’s propped up by Kyle Shanahan, who could do this with any “mid” quarterback. Potentially true, but no less an authority than Kyle Shanahan appears to disagree with that assessment.

Some people think Brock Purdy is bad. I disagree, but “cut bait” is a more intellectually defensible position than saying, “I would have paid him only $35 million a season.” That option wasn’t available, and even if the 49ers had it, they’ve demonstrated themselves more than capable of blowing $18 million on big names who get injured and do little. “Quarterback” is the kind of position where, if you’d want them at $35 million a season, you’re going to want them at $55 million. It’s like that because the alternative is “fucked,” and good teams don’t practice “fucked.”

NBA media gets the idea of opportunity cost more so than NFL media. I’m not saying we’re better. In many ways we’re worse: Indulgent, terrified to criticize, endlessly making excuses. But we easily accept that a flabby Slovenian simply must get $350 million or whatever, regardless of his defensive lapses. I enjoy how ruthless NFL commentary is, but it can veer into this almost moralistic place where guys aren’t worth what they’re worth because they ought not to be. But above average quarterbacks are worth the money. Hell, even much maligned Tua Tagovailoa can point to how godawful the Dolphins are when he sits. It might offend sensibilities that Mr. Irrelevant gets paid the same as Josh Allen, but that has no bearing on risk/reward. “Ought” has little to do with the situation as it is.

Personally, as a Niners watcher, I’m mostly relieved that the offseason isn’t dragging into the season, as it usually does. To quote a guy on Twitter:

Can’t help but feel that the 49ers missed a golden opportunity to drag all of these negotiations through the summer, completely exhausting their fan base and players in the process. This is not the team I’ve come to know and love.