NFL Thoughts: A Contrarian Theory on Who the NFL's Best Player is and a Reader Dumps on Justin Herbert
A SHOCKING take about a cornerback
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Speaking of, I met with Subscriber Eli, a brilliant guy with a top Smart Score of 100 on Sports Predict. He’s been incredibly successful in ventures having nothing to do with sports, which perhaps lends itself to an alternative perspective. During our lunch, he unleashed a take that I found to be equal parts surprising and plausible.
It’s this and apologies if I’m mischaracterizing the opinion: Houston Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is the best player in the NFL, and he brings an impact that’s massively undervalued. Eli’s observation is that quarterbacks tend to simply abandon the side of the field Stingley is on, creating a huge advantage for an already stacked Texans defense.
Now, almost everyone in the NFL would agree that Stingley is a top 3 corner, and arguably the league’s best. He finished 18th in the NFL’s Top 100 player poll entering this season and there’s no reason to believe he’s lost status. But Eli argues that DSJ is significantly better than Pat Surtain and other elite corners, to a degree that’s not properly appreciated.
This theory intrigues me because we, the public, have both a dearth of film on cornerbacks and statistical information. What little data we get on Stingley is impressive though. According to Pro Football Reference, quarterbacks are completing an absurd 43.3 percent of their passes when targeting Stingley, and a horrific 54 passer rating. Kamari Lassiter, the highly touted other starting corner on the Texans, cedes 57.7 percent completion rate and a 79.8 QB rating when targeted. The aforementioned Patrick Surtain of the Broncos? He gives up 54.1 percent to quarterbacks for a 66.6 passer rating. Impressive, but just not Stingley level. Since the Texans defense is, to a lot of people, defined by their elite edge rushers, the unique brilliance of their best player is perhaps getting obscured.
And I can relate to ignoring cornerbacks. Even if they’re great, they tend to burn out quickly. A draft hit on a left tackle means your team has value for over a decade. Corners go from “elite” to “cooked” in a blink.
When I was a kid and the Chargers spent their 5th overall pick on Quentin Jammer, I was disappointed and skeptical that a guy off screen could bring meaningful impact. Jammer then went on to have a subtly bizarre career: An impressive 11 seasons starting at corner for San Diego, but with no Pro Bowls, perhaps because he was always playing drunk. But I digress.
The main point here is that cornerbacks are potentially undervalued writ large. Renardo Green of the 49ers is short of elite and given rumblings out of Santa Clara, I’m not sure the coaches love him. His recent return to the lineup following a neck issue barely made a media ripple amid the dominant Niners storyline of “injury depleted roster.” But 49ers opponents scored 10 points per game more in the games Green missed than the games he started this season. Perhaps random, but perhaps an indicator that the drop off from starting corner to backup is undervalued. Unfortunately, I’ve accidentally set Renardo up to get roasted by Jaxon Smith Njigba on Saturday.
Justin Herbert Lament
Multiple Justin Herbert defenders reached out to me following my criticism of a quarterback who seemingly can never fail, but only be failed. Perhaps they’re correct, but obviously I’m warmer to takes that agree with my priors. And we’ve got a good one in a comment from Subscriber Grant Marn:
The big reveal on Herbert came in 2023 when the Chargers hired Kellen Moore as their Offensive Coordinator replacing Joe Lombardi (now the Broncos OC).
The media hailed it as the most important acquisition of the entire NFL offseason and perhaps in several years. Moore and his scheme were considered a perfect fit for Herbert and would unleash his talents and accelerate his development as he had done with Dak Prescott. Prescott confirmed as much, calling the exiting Moore much more than just his OC, but his mentor too.
The plan Chargered in spectacular fashion.
Herbert’s metrics were virtually identical to those under Lombardi the year prior (in fact, identical to the decimal point for his Passing Rating). After 14 weeks, Herbert suffered a season ending fractured finger, and the Chargers fired Brandon Staley. Moore’s star had fallen so far within the organization from Herbert’s continued developmental struggles that he wasn’t elevated to Interim HC as many in the media expected…LA choosing instead Giff Smith, the Outside Linebackers Coach.
Moore of course quickly moved on after his one season in LA to be hired by Howie Roseman as the OC for the Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. This season Moore has been impressive as HC in his first year with rookie Tyler Shough.
For Justin Herbert, however, it’s remained very much “same as it ever was” – good but not great numbers, injuries, postseason flameouts, and an endless series of new OCs trying to right the ship. Next year will bring on the fifth.
It’s ironic that such a stream of OCs driven by a lack of QB development is now a popular excuse for continued disappointments for favored QBs such as Herbert. Yet, for Herbert, his OCs have included Shane Steichen, Joe Lombardi (who Drew Brees credited as a key to his NFL success and now working with Bo Nix), Moore and most recently Greg Roman (the OC for Lamar Jackson’s MVP season). Opinions can vary of course, but overall, a reasonably impressive slate of OCs – Moore in particular.
Herbert’s struggles to improve under coaches who have gone on to find success elsewhere is a troubling sign that the media ignores. They choose instead to offer the overused and lazy excuse and the end of each season of “the organization has failed Herbert” when it is becoming more apparent that it just might be the other way around – particularly following Herbert’s expensive extension in 2023.
For the last few years, the roster of the Chargers has been reasonably solid…far from depleted and certainly enough for Herbert to succeed. With the much-heralded Jim Harbaugh now leading the organization and Herbert entering year seven, the excuses are running thin. At some point, you are your record.
Complicating matters is that Herbert appears to be increasingly injury prone. An impressive array of injuries has already occurred in his young career including fractured ribs, a torn labrum, multiple broken fingers, a high ankle sprain and plantar fasciitis struggles. Data has shown that QBs that suffer a variety of injuries early in their careers tend to continue to have them throughout their careers at high rates. While Herbert is lauded for his toughness in playing through his injuries, his effectiveness has been reduced and a detriment to the Chargers.
After six seasons, Herbert’s career average Passing Rating is 96.3 with a consistent Approximate Value rating of around 14 year after year. Using his advanced metrics, Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points I believe ranked Herbert 10th in 2023, 10th in 2024 and 17th this year.
I would describe those numbers as Princeton recruiter Bill Rutherford did for Joel in the 80s classic film, Risky Business, “…your stats are very respectable. You’ve done some solid work here…but it’s not quite Ivy League now is it?”
Despite the media relentlessly telling itself Herbert is still elite to keep their spirits high, it looks like it’s going to be the University of Illinois for the Chargers for the foreseeable future…
It’s not that I believe Justin Herbert to be bad, but more that I balk at holding a player to hypothetical, rather than objective, standards. The official House of Strauss position is that Herbert is above average, but for now he’s no Derek Stingley Jr. in terms of the impact he provides. Enjoy the weekend everybody.