fwiw, engelman is an advanced stats guy and had a similar take to you and your friends. i'm personally v worried about the spacing thing, but i'm also open to the idea that butler is a major upgrade over wiggins, beneath the counting stats.
+++
Warriors improve by addition and subtraction
Golden State lost no player of significance in the deal to acquire Big Face Coffee proprietor Jimmy Butler — between Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schröder, Kyle Anderson, and Lindy Waters, not one of them rates as positive in xRAPM.
Schröder, in fact, was an unmitigated disaster for Golden State. Acquired in mid-December, he recorded a total plus-minus of -130 in his short time there, almost twice as negative as the next-worst Warriors player.
Simply removing Schröder from the lineup will probably get the Warriors back to above .500 ball.
Butler, at least according to my xRAPM numbers, is still a top-15 player in the NBA. When fully motivated — which seems likely, thanks to a new contract extension — he might be even better.
Said contract extension, for two years at around $56 million per season, is a little hefty for a 35-year-old, but I understand the Warriors simply want to make the best out of Steph Curry's remaining years in the league, costs be damned.
There are spacing concerns — the Warriors don't have a stretch big, and Butler doesn’t stretch the floor either. But the collective basketball IQ, especially in lineups that include Curry and Draymond Green, should mitigate those issues.
Currently outside the play-in, the Warriors will have to find some traction, fast, if they want to make the playoffs and avoid Oklahoma City in the first round.
Whether this deal was enough to get them there depends, to some degree, on their own injury luck, and that of teams above them in the standings.
But I would say they did significantly improve their chances.
I think the hardcore hoop nerd folks are nitpicking the Butler fit because they are desperate to have something basketball-related to analyze with a trade after the Luka trade happened for obviously non-basketball reasons and the fits were the least relevant part of the the story...
I did think there was an addition by subtraction part of the trade where the front office got rid of all of Kerr's pet projects that we costing them points every time they played.
I love Nate and Danny, but they are failing to capture just how awful the Warriors’ predicament was. They are both too high on Andrew Wiggins’ value. They give too much credit for him being on a “good deal” and providing what all NBA teams need.
But Wiggins simply wasn’t a good enough player to be a legit number two option on a team that wants to compete in the playoffs. The only guy out there who had that pedigree was Jimmy Butler. The Warriors don’t need a good value contract: they need another star. All Warriors fans know this, both “casuals“ and “experts“ alike.
The more analytical/expert crowd often fails to relate to the plight of the fan. I frequently hear critiques and observations that fail to realize that fans want to be (1) entertained by their team and (2) competitive with the best teams in the league. Those same experts would like for the Warriors to “blow it up“ and trade Steph Curry and just start from scratch like that is some magical formula to success. Long time Warriors fans know just how bad a team can be for a very long time. I’ll take the home run swing of Jimmy Butler (which to Nate’s credit he acknowledges as a home run swing) then an analysis of how the Warriors can create better future value for some theoretical championship contender down the line, all at the expensive Steph Curry.
Agree here. Nate is usually pretty good at acknowledging the context of a move - i.e., he'll say there are basically no moves that are likely to lead to a good outcome, but a all-in, high-variance move gives you a better chance than doing nothing.
Nate has made this point about several Phoenix moves and I think it applies here too. I was surprised he didn't take that position, but they are kind of weird with the Warriors because they're so close to them.
A former NY Times food critic wrote about how lonely the job of being a critic is. Chefs and restaurant owners are afraid of you and hate you because of the power you have over their hard work and financial health but he also talked about how he was never invited to dinner parties because friends were afraid of what he would think about their own cooking.
This whole thing is what makes the NBA hard to enjoy. I’m 41 and would like to think that acting like a complete and utter Jackass would have consequences. Instead you get rewarded with a new contract at 60 million a year at age 35 after being a horrible teammate, leader, and general pain in the ass.
I get as a Nuggets fan I’m extremely spoiled that our superstar doesn’t act this way and by all accounts is a great guy and teammate. However once he retires I’m done watching the NBA. Between officiating, knowing the Nuggets will never have a true chance at getting/retaining another superstar, and rewarding players like Butler it makes the sport hard to root for.
It's a tough feeling, man. You like Thing X, then you go on social media and find out everyone hates it. You go "wait, what?" and feel kinda dumb and naive.
Ethan, start selling advertising on your Substack so you can afford Warriors season tickets and become an NBA insider again. Details from the Wall Street Journal on link below:
The bet GS is making is that Jimmy is even able to play in the playoffs which, he wasn't last year. Which is the biggest reason the whole marriage with Miami broke down.
It'll still be fun even if Jimmy can't play in May and June, because we'll still get to hear him say how Golden State would absolutely have crushed the Lakers, as LA goes on their seemingly inevitable championship March.
(I'm excited to see your guy Nick Wright pick the Lakers to win the title every year from now until Luka retires).
I'm more interested why Kevin Durant reunion rumor was allowed to continue for over two years now, even though it seems like he clearly had no interest. Did no one actually asked him until the last minute? Not a warriors fan, don't actually care, but was hoping for the reunion for the jokes.
I think it's a decent move considering the situation the Warriors were in. They could have stood pat, continued to play middling basketball and go nowhere.
The Butler trade is in the very least a shot in the arm for the team and should help in a playoff setting.
Jimmy has become notorious for taking the regular season and finding another gear for the postseason. I would not put it past him to do so again
As a fairly hardcore nba fan a long long time warriors fan and as someone who has season tix and watches the games on the regular , including yet another debacle last night, the hard part that no one seems to want to say out loud… is that Steph isn’t a top 10 player anymore, probably not a top 15 player anymore and almost no trade in the world other than what I now will always refer to as a ‘Nico special’ Will take us dubs fans on a deep playoff run. Tuesday night on multiple group chats we all agreed - please no Jimmy please. I want to be clear, I was, when he was a younger man, a huge jimmy buckets guy. Just like Steph and Draymond - he’s not that guy anymore. Shooting and rim protection (and maybe even moreso point of attack defense) are requirements of a modern nba team. Truly super casual fans who watch Stephen A And Nick wright and that whole crowd like this trade for trades sake and the popcorn factor.
Nothing about this trade makes sense to anyone who watches the nba on an even modestly regular basis. The warriors didn’t give up THAT much but they didn’t get that much either. What they did do was make their payroll for 3 guys, all in severe decline, 2 of whom can’t shoot and third of whom can only shoot some nights when he’s feeling spry, absurdly and outlandishly expensive. In a world of second aprons and thus what amounts to a hard cap league, the dubs just hitched their team to three - albeit storied - old men.
Go out and prove me wrong with another move this summer MDJr. Or with jimmy shooting 3s like he did vs the Celtics in the playoffs.
Otherwise… ‘never mistake activity for achievement.’
I think even as a supposed casual Ethan, you know in your heart that this is a great trade for content, but a bad one for team building. and given your current gig - that all makes perfect sense. I just hope I’m dead wrong and jimmy (Steph and Draymond too) make me eat crow.
Amazing that the warriors actually got older, less athletic, and worse at shooting!
That said I will at least start watching the games again. The last couple of months I just couldn’t take it anymore. I have to imagine even an old Jimmy Buckets will be able to do something when Steph gets triple teamed
Is it possible for someone to be older, less athletic, and worse at shooting but still be the better player? Do people actually think Wiggins is a better basketball player than Butler?
As a casual fan, I would blame the Dubs being boring on Draymond not engaging in any on-court actions (neither practice nor game) that would lead to arrest if carried out off court. ;-)
Steph still does stuff that makes me shake my head in a good way.
I think the hardcore faction is dead wrong here. the warriors don't really have fixable problems but this at least gives them a credible shot at making a playoff series or two interesting
That title in 2022 has clouded their thinking, that was basically the last stand taking advantage of the likes of Dallas/denver/memphis not being quite ready yet and the team should really have been blown up after that, but I do wonder if the bulls doing that after ‘98 is why they didn’t and thought may as well milk Steph and draymond for all they have left, problem is they’re probably at best a play in team (and they probably won’t even be that) - just got to pray the league does what they did for Cleveland post LeBron leaving and gift them the #1 pick to make Steph’s last years a bit more bearable
I think that is a false dictomy. Every front office has an analytics department now. Even the scouts who do the eye tests understand analytics and are better informed of what traits to look for when evaluating players due to analytics.
"relationship forward" is closer to what I meant than eye-test
Really what I was getting at is whether Nate and Danny would make good gms, given their analysis is biased towards advanced stats and cap dynamics. Also Pelton
fwiw, engelman is an advanced stats guy and had a similar take to you and your friends. i'm personally v worried about the spacing thing, but i'm also open to the idea that butler is a major upgrade over wiggins, beneath the counting stats.
+++
Warriors improve by addition and subtraction
Golden State lost no player of significance in the deal to acquire Big Face Coffee proprietor Jimmy Butler — between Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schröder, Kyle Anderson, and Lindy Waters, not one of them rates as positive in xRAPM.
Schröder, in fact, was an unmitigated disaster for Golden State. Acquired in mid-December, he recorded a total plus-minus of -130 in his short time there, almost twice as negative as the next-worst Warriors player.
Simply removing Schröder from the lineup will probably get the Warriors back to above .500 ball.
Butler, at least according to my xRAPM numbers, is still a top-15 player in the NBA. When fully motivated — which seems likely, thanks to a new contract extension — he might be even better.
Said contract extension, for two years at around $56 million per season, is a little hefty for a 35-year-old, but I understand the Warriors simply want to make the best out of Steph Curry's remaining years in the league, costs be damned.
There are spacing concerns — the Warriors don't have a stretch big, and Butler doesn’t stretch the floor either. But the collective basketball IQ, especially in lineups that include Curry and Draymond Green, should mitigate those issues.
Currently outside the play-in, the Warriors will have to find some traction, fast, if they want to make the playoffs and avoid Oklahoma City in the first round.
Whether this deal was enough to get them there depends, to some degree, on their own injury luck, and that of teams above them in the standings.
But I would say they did significantly improve their chances.
I think the hardcore hoop nerd folks are nitpicking the Butler fit because they are desperate to have something basketball-related to analyze with a trade after the Luka trade happened for obviously non-basketball reasons and the fits were the least relevant part of the the story...
Love this take
this does not sound like #lightyears Andy to me.
I did think there was an addition by subtraction part of the trade where the front office got rid of all of Kerr's pet projects that we costing them points every time they played.
not LY andy lol
I love Nate and Danny, but they are failing to capture just how awful the Warriors’ predicament was. They are both too high on Andrew Wiggins’ value. They give too much credit for him being on a “good deal” and providing what all NBA teams need.
But Wiggins simply wasn’t a good enough player to be a legit number two option on a team that wants to compete in the playoffs. The only guy out there who had that pedigree was Jimmy Butler. The Warriors don’t need a good value contract: they need another star. All Warriors fans know this, both “casuals“ and “experts“ alike.
The more analytical/expert crowd often fails to relate to the plight of the fan. I frequently hear critiques and observations that fail to realize that fans want to be (1) entertained by their team and (2) competitive with the best teams in the league. Those same experts would like for the Warriors to “blow it up“ and trade Steph Curry and just start from scratch like that is some magical formula to success. Long time Warriors fans know just how bad a team can be for a very long time. I’ll take the home run swing of Jimmy Butler (which to Nate’s credit he acknowledges as a home run swing) then an analysis of how the Warriors can create better future value for some theoretical championship contender down the line, all at the expensive Steph Curry.
Agree here. Nate is usually pretty good at acknowledging the context of a move - i.e., he'll say there are basically no moves that are likely to lead to a good outcome, but a all-in, high-variance move gives you a better chance than doing nothing.
Nate has made this point about several Phoenix moves and I think it applies here too. I was surprised he didn't take that position, but they are kind of weird with the Warriors because they're so close to them.
A former NY Times food critic wrote about how lonely the job of being a critic is. Chefs and restaurant owners are afraid of you and hate you because of the power you have over their hard work and financial health but he also talked about how he was never invited to dinner parties because friends were afraid of what he would think about their own cooking.
I almost shed a tear. My heart goes out to the food critics of the world.
This whole thing is what makes the NBA hard to enjoy. I’m 41 and would like to think that acting like a complete and utter Jackass would have consequences. Instead you get rewarded with a new contract at 60 million a year at age 35 after being a horrible teammate, leader, and general pain in the ass.
I get as a Nuggets fan I’m extremely spoiled that our superstar doesn’t act this way and by all accounts is a great guy and teammate. However once he retires I’m done watching the NBA. Between officiating, knowing the Nuggets will never have a true chance at getting/retaining another superstar, and rewarding players like Butler it makes the sport hard to root for.
It's a tough feeling, man. You like Thing X, then you go on social media and find out everyone hates it. You go "wait, what?" and feel kinda dumb and naive.
Happens all the time. Very modern problem.
My advice would be to not let the opinions on social media affect how your emotions. I know it easier said than done
It's very hard! Working on it.
Sometimes Duncan is so granular he can't see the forest for the trees. In no world is Wiggins better than Butler.
Ethan, start selling advertising on your Substack so you can afford Warriors season tickets and become an NBA insider again. Details from the Wall Street Journal on link below:
https://archive.ph/dpjqa
The bet GS is making is that Jimmy is even able to play in the playoffs which, he wasn't last year. Which is the biggest reason the whole marriage with Miami broke down.
It'll still be fun even if Jimmy can't play in May and June, because we'll still get to hear him say how Golden State would absolutely have crushed the Lakers, as LA goes on their seemingly inevitable championship March.
(I'm excited to see your guy Nick Wright pick the Lakers to win the title every year from now until Luka retires).
I'm more interested why Kevin Durant reunion rumor was allowed to continue for over two years now, even though it seems like he clearly had no interest. Did no one actually asked him until the last minute? Not a warriors fan, don't actually care, but was hoping for the reunion for the jokes.
I think it's a decent move considering the situation the Warriors were in. They could have stood pat, continued to play middling basketball and go nowhere.
The Butler trade is in the very least a shot in the arm for the team and should help in a playoff setting.
Jimmy has become notorious for taking the regular season and finding another gear for the postseason. I would not put it past him to do so again
Playoffs start now for the dubs. 32 games left.
21-11 would be an impressive result to get to … 45 wins
As a fairly hardcore nba fan a long long time warriors fan and as someone who has season tix and watches the games on the regular , including yet another debacle last night, the hard part that no one seems to want to say out loud… is that Steph isn’t a top 10 player anymore, probably not a top 15 player anymore and almost no trade in the world other than what I now will always refer to as a ‘Nico special’ Will take us dubs fans on a deep playoff run. Tuesday night on multiple group chats we all agreed - please no Jimmy please. I want to be clear, I was, when he was a younger man, a huge jimmy buckets guy. Just like Steph and Draymond - he’s not that guy anymore. Shooting and rim protection (and maybe even moreso point of attack defense) are requirements of a modern nba team. Truly super casual fans who watch Stephen A And Nick wright and that whole crowd like this trade for trades sake and the popcorn factor.
Nothing about this trade makes sense to anyone who watches the nba on an even modestly regular basis. The warriors didn’t give up THAT much but they didn’t get that much either. What they did do was make their payroll for 3 guys, all in severe decline, 2 of whom can’t shoot and third of whom can only shoot some nights when he’s feeling spry, absurdly and outlandishly expensive. In a world of second aprons and thus what amounts to a hard cap league, the dubs just hitched their team to three - albeit storied - old men.
Go out and prove me wrong with another move this summer MDJr. Or with jimmy shooting 3s like he did vs the Celtics in the playoffs.
Otherwise… ‘never mistake activity for achievement.’
I think even as a supposed casual Ethan, you know in your heart that this is a great trade for content, but a bad one for team building. and given your current gig - that all makes perfect sense. I just hope I’m dead wrong and jimmy (Steph and Draymond too) make me eat crow.
Not sure what JE would say, but I assume it's getting harder to use the regular season as a post-season predictor.
Amazing that the warriors actually got older, less athletic, and worse at shooting!
That said I will at least start watching the games again. The last couple of months I just couldn’t take it anymore. I have to imagine even an old Jimmy Buckets will be able to do something when Steph gets triple teamed
Is it possible for someone to be older, less athletic, and worse at shooting but still be the better player? Do people actually think Wiggins is a better basketball player than Butler?
As a casual fan, I would blame the Dubs being boring on Draymond not engaging in any on-court actions (neither practice nor game) that would lead to arrest if carried out off court. ;-)
Steph still does stuff that makes me shake my head in a good way.
I think the hardcore faction is dead wrong here. the warriors don't really have fixable problems but this at least gives them a credible shot at making a playoff series or two interesting
That title in 2022 has clouded their thinking, that was basically the last stand taking advantage of the likes of Dallas/denver/memphis not being quite ready yet and the team should really have been blown up after that, but I do wonder if the bulls doing that after ‘98 is why they didn’t and thought may as well milk Steph and draymond for all they have left, problem is they’re probably at best a play in team (and they probably won’t even be that) - just got to pray the league does what they did for Cleveland post LeBron leaving and gift them the #1 pick to make Steph’s last years a bit more bearable
whom of the analytics over eye-test crowd has been a highly effective GM? Morey?
Per recent HOS articles, still have to nail the people part
I think that is a false dictomy. Every front office has an analytics department now. Even the scouts who do the eye tests understand analytics and are better informed of what traits to look for when evaluating players due to analytics.
"relationship forward" is closer to what I meant than eye-test
Really what I was getting at is whether Nate and Danny would make good gms, given their analysis is biased towards advanced stats and cap dynamics. Also Pelton