Jimmy Butler Trade Shows Me I'm a Casual
Unlike the Luka Debacle, there's a casual/hardcore division
There’s a vast chasm in America between casual and expert NBA fans. For years, maybe even decades, I was in the latter camp. Since leaving NBA media, even if I have league source connections, I have drifted into the former camp.
How do I know this? Many reasons, but most recently it’s because I heartedly approved of the rudderless Warriors parting with Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schröder, Kyle Anderson, Lindy Waters III, and a top-10 protected 2025 first-round draft pick so as to acquire Jimmy “Buckets” Butler from the Miami Heat.
The Warriors have bored me for months if not years. The tempestuous Butler is anything but boring. He’s also a storied playoff performer so you can reserve extra hope if the Warriors make the postseason. The team was going nowhere. This trade at least allows for some intrigue and hope. You can talk yourselves into how the Warriors have gone from “no shot” to “long shot.” My college group chats agree. They’re excited about getting “Jimmy Buckets.” They’re into this, “One last ride,” gambit, even if GSW coach Steve Kerr doesn’t seem to love the set up.
Then I listen to my friend Nate Duncan’s NBA podcast and realize that we’re clueless fools. The fit is terrible. The Warriors don’t have enough shooting. They’re lacking in size. Draymond Green and Butler don’t make sense together offensively. A 35 year-old Butler arguably isn’t even an upgrade over 29 year-old Andrew Wiggins. This is before we even get into the nitty gritty of Butler’s lavish contract extension.
Nate and the other experts are probably correct. I can daydream about a playoff series where Butler and Steph Curry work together to break an opposing defense, but the team is about more than just a couple of stars on the metaphorical marquee. The Warriors are thin. They did this because they’re desperate. It likely won’t work.
A lot of NBA moves are of an inobvious quality where sports bar takes deviate from studied takes. There’s the occasional Luka deal where everyone has more or less the same opinion, but most trades are of immediately unclear ruling. You might have an emotional opinion at first blush, but must consult the set that’s deep in the weeds before feeling fully informed. It’s why, as much as I’d be bullish on leading NBA writer Zach Lowe starting a Substack, I’d be even more confident in ESPN’s NBA trade grade expert Kevin Pelton as a paywall venture. There’s an instant desire for clarity in the aftermath of these complicated deals. Fans want to know whether they just got swindled or got a steal.
This has something to do with why NBA general managers tended to like Zach whereas many absolutely hated Pelton. Kevin is a nice guy, who’s well informed and works diligently. He’s hard to hate! But he’s also the person tasked with appending an immediate “Trade Grade,” in the hazy aftermath when consensus perspectives are as yet unformed. Whether they admit it or not, many NBA insiders are somewhat tailing their opinions to what another expert says. We’re social creatures. We don’t want to look dumb. If you’re coming up with your reaction and Pelton gives a “D” grade to a team, it just might influence your take.
NBA GMs have a certain vision for why their deal will work, and some got serious angst over the public reaction. Here you’ve burned the midnight oil getting this trade completed, harbor a secret reason for why you’ve done this (the player can’t remember the playbook), and Kevin has suddenly offered your owner a tangibly bad evaluation. I can’t tell you if Pelton was correct more times than he was incorrect. I can just tell you that Kevin is smart, and GMs hate being made to look dumb.
Part of me misses the days when I had my own NBA opinions. Now, I simply lack the ground level knowledge to fully believe what I feel. Even if I still regularly talk to people in the league, I’ve delegated transaction opinions to others.
And what was the Kevin Pelton trade grade for the Warriors on this Butler deal? I’m almost relieved to say it was a B-. I can live with a B-, and so can my friends in the group chat.
fwiw, engelman is an advanced stats guy and had a similar take to you and your friends. i'm personally v worried about the spacing thing, but i'm also open to the idea that butler is a major upgrade over wiggins, beneath the counting stats.
+++
Warriors improve by addition and subtraction
Golden State lost no player of significance in the deal to acquire Big Face Coffee proprietor Jimmy Butler — between Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schröder, Kyle Anderson, and Lindy Waters, not one of them rates as positive in xRAPM.
Schröder, in fact, was an unmitigated disaster for Golden State. Acquired in mid-December, he recorded a total plus-minus of -130 in his short time there, almost twice as negative as the next-worst Warriors player.
Simply removing Schröder from the lineup will probably get the Warriors back to above .500 ball.
Butler, at least according to my xRAPM numbers, is still a top-15 player in the NBA. When fully motivated — which seems likely, thanks to a new contract extension — he might be even better.
Said contract extension, for two years at around $56 million per season, is a little hefty for a 35-year-old, but I understand the Warriors simply want to make the best out of Steph Curry's remaining years in the league, costs be damned.
There are spacing concerns — the Warriors don't have a stretch big, and Butler doesn’t stretch the floor either. But the collective basketball IQ, especially in lineups that include Curry and Draymond Green, should mitigate those issues.
Currently outside the play-in, the Warriors will have to find some traction, fast, if they want to make the playoffs and avoid Oklahoma City in the first round.
Whether this deal was enough to get them there depends, to some degree, on their own injury luck, and that of teams above them in the standings.
But I would say they did significantly improve their chances.
I love Nate and Danny, but they are failing to capture just how awful the Warriors’ predicament was. They are both too high on Andrew Wiggins’ value. They give too much credit for him being on a “good deal” and providing what all NBA teams need.
But Wiggins simply wasn’t a good enough player to be a legit number two option on a team that wants to compete in the playoffs. The only guy out there who had that pedigree was Jimmy Butler. The Warriors don’t need a good value contract: they need another star. All Warriors fans know this, both “casuals“ and “experts“ alike.
The more analytical/expert crowd often fails to relate to the plight of the fan. I frequently hear critiques and observations that fail to realize that fans want to be (1) entertained by their team and (2) competitive with the best teams in the league. Those same experts would like for the Warriors to “blow it up“ and trade Steph Curry and just start from scratch like that is some magical formula to success. Long time Warriors fans know just how bad a team can be for a very long time. I’ll take the home run swing of Jimmy Butler (which to Nate’s credit he acknowledges as a home run swing) then an analysis of how the Warriors can create better future value for some theoretical championship contender down the line, all at the expensive Steph Curry.