21 Comments
User's avatar
Bertie Wooster's avatar

I am always wary of trotting out the "X has shown a blueprint to beat Y" canard. I'm a Saints fan and in 2009, when our 13-0 run ended with a loss to DAL, many pundits declared DAL had shown the blueprint to beat the Saints and we were exposed/done (this intensified after we lost again the following week to a bad TB team) and yet we won the Super Bowl.

Even if you theoretically know a blueprint, being able to flawlessly execute it is another matter. DAL's blueprint worked that night b/c their Hall of Fame edge rusher (Demarcus Ware) had an otherworldly performance. Not every team can rely on a performance like that, even if it's the same team/guy. In 2018, Drew Brees had a MUCH better performance in our 48-7 regular season win over PHI than he did in our nailbiter 20-14 playoff win against PHI.

I think San Fran has as good a chance as anyone to win the Super Bowl this year, but it's way too rash to count out PHI yet.

Expand full comment
marginalresponse's avatar

Always love "blueprint to beat X" discussions that essentially boil down to something like, "just hit 60% of your three-point attempts." Maybe you were able to create a lot of open looks, but that level of execution/results just isn't necessarily repeatable.

Expand full comment
Gene Parmesan's avatar

Eh...the Eagles might still get the #1 seed. Regardless, they'll have a chance in any playoff game they play. They might not be favorites anymore but they are good enough to win. And I hate the Eagles.

The tush push is a massive value for them as you stated. Total game changer.

Expand full comment
Freddie deBoer's avatar

Kyle Shanahan has been the 49ers head coach since 2017. In that time they have NEVER come back from five (5!) points or more down in the 4th quarter. They are 0-30 in those scenarios. I can't take the 49ers seriously as a championship contender until they show me that they can go down two touchdowns to a team like the Cowboys and come back. Purdy sucks in must-pass situations. Just a fact.

Expand full comment
PW's avatar

Not sure if there's a better stat than this to articulate how Purdy does in "must-pass situations" but he has a passer rating of 98.6 with 633 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception in 12 games on 3rd down this season. I don't know how that compares with other QBs but it seems pretty good!

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/brock-purdy-on-3rd-down-and-long

Expand full comment
Nate's avatar

As a (quasi) Cowboys fan, trust me... they could absolutely blow a 14-point lead to Kyle Shanahan in a playoff game.

Expand full comment
Freddie deBoer's avatar

Maybe so, but I have to see it to trust it

Expand full comment
Phillip's avatar

I somewhat agree with you Freddie. I don't trust Kyle or Brock in situations where they are down 14 or more. As a niner fan, I just hope they are talented and lucky enough to avoid that predicament.

Expand full comment
Joshua Pressman Jacobs's avatar

I'm now routing for the Eagles for this Homorific take you just made, Ethan! LOL Stick with your guy Cowherd's take. He's not wedded to any one place and does not fawn over the local team, taking potshots at one of their closest rivals.

Expand full comment
Drew's avatar

1) niners are undefeated when deebo and Trent finish games, 0-3 when they dont

2) eagles have a way easier remaining schedule than niners. 2 games against Tommy devito

3) niners likely have to play extra playoff game and travel for eagles rematch

Will Trent and deebo stay healthy with the extra game? Wouldn’t count eagles out just yet

Expand full comment
George H.'s avatar

This seems like an overly simplistic analysis assuming that everything stays static from here on out. Teams adjust all of the time to combat an opponent's tactics.

Expand full comment
Chuck Burbank's avatar

I thought this was going to be about Rock bands in the 80’s by the title?

Expand full comment
Mike Allen's avatar

After that cowboys game it’s time y’all put some respect on Ethan’s name

Expand full comment
Ethan Strauss's avatar

Many people are saying I'm the nation's top NFL expert

Expand full comment
KW's avatar

This is looking mighty good after last night.

Expand full comment
John Langford's avatar

Surprised no one here has mentioned, or Ethan in the column, about the Eagles signing Shaq Leonard this week. Sure, in the NFL its hard to plug a new guy into a scheme and expect it to go flawlessly (see Eagles with Kevin Byard over the past month), but if there's a month until the playoffs start and the Eagles have a relatively painless schedule until then its pretty reasonable to think a decent coach could get the new Pro Bowler comfortable within the system in a month's time.

Expand full comment
Night Owl's avatar

He did mention it in the column.

Expand full comment
John Langford's avatar

ahhh I see it now. He either added it after the original post last night or I am blind. It is likely that I am just blind.

Expand full comment
John Langford's avatar

Looking back on this a month later. LOL. Not sure there's a more worthless player in the league at this moment than Shaq Leonard. "Relatively painless schedule". Yea, we're gettin beat by 40 at TB next week.

Expand full comment
Night Owl's avatar

It was Purdy’s elbow that got destroyed, not his shoulder.

Sorry for first comment to be a correction; I’m a very happy subscriber!

Expand full comment
Ethan Strauss's avatar

Fixed.

Expand full comment