I Agree With Steve Young: The Eagles are Pretenders

On the fatal flaws Young and Nick Bosa saw in Philadelphia

I’m not exactly Joe Football over here, but I’ve a background in hearing what athletes say and using it to guide analysis. It’s been quite an experience following the NFL more closely than I have in years past, because I was just so professionally consumed with the NBA. Now that I’m watching football, I and Taylor Swift are drawn in by the game’s evolving nature.

Let’s take a look at something big picture, which is whether the Philadelphia Eagles are doomed. At first glance, this is a hyperbolic take. The Eagles have the league’s best record and have won 20 of their last 24 games. But, after the Eagles got thrashed by the Niners 42-19 last Sunday, the great Steve Young has written off last season’s NFC champions. The Hall of Famer was blunt on local Bay Area radio, telling Tom Tolbert that he’s now assessed the Eagles as “pretenders.”

Toward the end of the third quarter, I thought, 'What pretenders these guys were.’ Last year, that defense was smothering. It's not. They've lost people at linebacker. You could just see they didn't have the pursuit, they didn't have -- they don't have it. I don't know if they can get it back.

My guy Colin Cowherd was not so persuaded by Young, highlighting the Eagles’ recent brutal schedule and our tendency as a species to be prisoner of the moment.

Love Colin, fair points, but on this one, I’m with Steve. Everyone who follows the league knows that the Eagles are weak at linebacker. The Eagles certainly do, which is why they signed Shaq Leonard. But I don’t believe it’s enough to simply make that point. The issue is, the Eagles are so weak at linebacker that the Niners changed their entire offensive approach to exploit it — and did so, to great effect.

To that end, the Brock Purdy Discourse somewhat distracted from what happened last Sunday in Philadelphia. It was an excellent game for Purdy statistically, but one that was pumped by Deebo Samuel and other Niners turning short passes into huge Yards After Catch gains. This led to more of the old debate on whether Purdy is propped up by his teammates, which obscured that the Niners don’t usually operate this way, at least not anymore. With Purdy, Kyle Shanahan’s typical approach has been to do play action fakes and push the ball downfield. That’s been a great method, except for that one time the Eagles’ fearsome pass rush ripped Purdy’s elbow apart before he could get the ball out.

Rather than risk this happening again against the Eagles’ speedy defensive line, Shanahan had Purdy operate out of the Shotgun, farther back from the rush, and hit guys with quick passes. The first two drives went nowhere as the Niners felt out their new strategy, but once they settled in, the Eagles linebackers were wholly impotent to stop it. So, on Sunday, Steve Young saw what we all saw: Slow backers, getting overwhelmed, absent any strategic recourse. Obviously the 49ers are a talented team, but this is the sort of problem that doesn’t just go away. A weak secondary can be compensated for more easily than getting torched in the flats.

What Had the Eagles Flying

This season, the Eagles kept winning close games despite obvious flaws, as analysts wondered when and if Wile E. Coyote would finally drop from mid air. So what forestalled this fall, for so long? I’d argue that the famed “tush push” play has a more profound impact on outcomes than many realize. The unique ability of center Jason Kelce and quarterback Jalen Hurts to propel themselves forward on short yardage situations tilts the odds in an uncommon way. When every 3rd and 1 or 4th and 1 is an automatic conversion, it’s like you’re card counting when the other team is playing straight up BlackJack. There are aggregate effects to getting that marginal edge, over and over. It’s how a team can keep playing poorly, to the naked eye, yet continue winning after all the drives are added up.

Eventually, the “playing poorly” part can’t be overcome by the repeated marginal edge in certain situations. In other words, card counting can’t win out over a truly long stretch of bad cards, which is where the Eagles now find themselves. The Philly roster, which was great last year, has suffered attrition. Their flaws are exposed for other teams to see, and not just on defense.

Nick Bosa Calls Out Jalen Hurts

For example, 49ers star pass rusher Nick Bosa made a critical assessment of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and did so with Hurts’ upcoming opponent in mind. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like this in the NBA, and believe it would make big news waves if it happened to a star of Hurts’ caliber. Instead, this shot was lost in the shuffle, as Purdy Discourse and other topics overwhelmed the week. Anyway, here’s Bosa’s Sunday assessment of how Hurts was exposed:

We put the blueprint out there. Hopefully the Cowboys watched the tape. We made Jalen stay in the pocket and escape outside instead of those B gaps and it paid off.

Bosa elaborated:

He wasn’t completing passes when he had to roll outside. Those tackles kick so much, it invites you to pick a side, because Jalen is looking at the rush every play. You just have to be disciplined and not give him that quick escape route where he can (pass) to his guys. And our back end played awesome. They plastered, for sure.

Anyone watching this game was treated to the odd spectacle of the Niners attempting to flush Hurts, but also not aggressively pursue him. At times it looked as though the San Francisco pass rush was attempting not to sack Hurts, as the QB stalled out, failing to find receivers. Hurts ended up holding the ball for 3.72 seconds per snap, good for second longest of any QB this season. In theory, that’s an ideal scenario for a quarterback. In practice, the Eagles got crushed.

Of course, human beings can work on their flaws and Jalen Hurts has a long track record as a winner. Maybe he’ll figure out to find receivers when flushed like so. Perhaps, but this seems like a longstanding tendency that won’t just be fixed immediately.

After facing the Cowboys on Sunday, the Eagles have a soft schedule to finish the season. They can secure a top seed, a Bye, and potentially favorable playoff matchups. But I say that part just as a caveat to slightly cover my ass if I’m wrong here. Overall, I think they’re done. I love an analytically inclined team that uncovers an edge. As a (former?) A’s fan though? I, perhaps more than most, understand that such an advantage can’t spackle over serious structural problems.