FYI there are several reasons why the TE market is so depressed relative to WR:
• There are very few elite players at the position and the drop-off from the future HoFers to everyone else is much steeper than other positions. Additionally, it’s also rare for even great TE to excel at all aspects of the position – Kelce is much closer to a WR1 than someone like Kittle or Gronk
• It’s undoubtedly the slowest developing position out of college with a very high bust rate in the early rounds. Consequently, extensions require even more projection than they do for other positions – is he a late-bloomer, or just bad? The list of TE who’ve come out hitting the ground running is quite short and draft position holds little predictive value as to whether or not someone will become an elite player.
• Consequently, because the franchise tag is based on the top five salaries at a particular position the TE number is quite low relative to others which means teams could use the tag on elite tight ends for multiple years without seriously breaking the bank. From the TE’s perspective, that could be a long time to continually bet on yourself without long-term security so the All-Pro types’ deals come in lower.
• This leads to having an All-Pro tight end being even more valuable than what they provide on the field (which is a LOT for the truly great ones) – Kelce’s production has been commiserate with the greatest WR in the game at a fraction of the price.
Similar principles apply to safety and center and it’s why paradoxically the smart, analytically inclined teams* don’t typically invest scarce resources at these positions even though there’s immense value in having the best players at them – identifying these truly elite guys is basically impossible and if you say draft a TE high in the first round they’ll already be paid amongst the most at the position while you probably won’t be able to reap the benefits of them actually playing at that level.
Apologies for the word vomit!
* The 2022 Ravens are probably the exception that proves the rule here when they drafted Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum in the 1st round – they were seen as the two best prospects at those positions in recent memory and (at least in Hamilton’s case) it appears to have worked out so far.
Also, just saying TEs produce more efficiently than WRs needs to be drilled down more as to what type of plays they are being effective. More receivers are in when it is an obvious passing down as opposed to TEs when it isn't an obvious passing down and play action is a threat. Also, We need to control for TE's like Kelce that are just slot receivers in reality. I can't remember the last time I saw that guy get in a 3 point stance.
I haven't seen anyone post serious numbers about down and distance controlled efficiency. Like I legit wonder about this with pass rushers, where if Nick Bosa gets to rush the passer when it is 3rd and Long, 25% more than Nick Crosby does that have an effect?
The entire conversation re: the cost of the NFL was off. It’s $479 to buy Sunday Ticket and the combined cost of everything is still less than the old school cable plan we used to have to pay for.
It’s much ado about nothing which is par for the course for Sharpe - he has lots of data but can’t ever answer the simple question of why. And that’s why his thesis often falls apart upon scrutiny.
The other part of that segment left me scratching my head, too. I don't have cable or sunday ticket, but I've always and continue to get 4 sunday games (3 afternoon, nbc sunday night) on the rabbit ears antennae. And in the past it hasn't been uncommon for a cable primetime game like MNF. The Thurs game is new and Amazon, but it's "extra" content (I think it's generally on a local market channel). (side question: are these generally bad-average games on Thurs, or just my recollection bias? Don't usually have any interest in the matchup.)
Peacockification in postseason is a worrying trend, but I think it's distinct from above.
Right. Now go on YouTube and you can buy it for $479. The extra charge is for the 30% App Store cut - no clue who is paying for that except uniformed customers listening to fake news on podcasts.
Normally I wouldn’t respond to trolling but you’re in luck - I’m bored.
The point is the real price for the offer isn’t even close to what you and Sharp believe it to be and anyone honestly quoting the price would give the standard one rather than the marked up one - unless they were trying to push an agenda or just ignorant.
And Sunday Ticket is literally apples and oranges to the cable bundle since cable only ever offered a maximum of three day games on Sunday along with SNF and MNF. So you can now get those games with a skinny package that’s much cheaper than the old cable bundle or just get them OTA for free. Without paying for Sunday Ticket, you’re much better off than you were before. Premium products like Sunday Ticket and TNF (available for free in participating teams local markets) are 100% additive and weren’t available in the past. Seems like something to celebrate rather than complain about but that’s just me.
But it's not fake news. I provided a link showing what he said was at least semi-correct. And if I was you, I wouldn't listen to podcasts you think are fake news. And it is stupid to compare the Sunday Ticket price to cable. Cable offers more than just Sunday Ticket.
Ethan just FYI in case helpful :You definitely do not need to apologize to me about a podcast focusing on football (or any sport). I am much more interested in sports related stuff than pure culture podcasts.
I just can't take Sharp seriously because he is a tout who sells sports picks. It is hard enough to win at sports betting, and leeches like Sharp who sell picks make it even harder for people that don't know any better. He even has the fake tout name to make himself sound smarter and to brand himself, his real name is Tyler Brickner.
I made it about five minutes into this episode before I nearly started to hyperventilate. Holy mother of statistical overload was this excruciating. There are analysts out there who zoom-in on the game and break it down on a granular level in a really interesting way and I've gotten some insights from Warren's tweats but talk about strangulating the fun out of something. If I were stuck watching football with somebody like this.I'd want to hang myself or jump out the goddamn window. I suppose the world needs people like this, but I don't need them talking anywhere near me.
I hear ya, though I'm planning on finishing the episode and seeing whether there's any nuggets to glean. But right off the bat, Q: "Is Football still fun to you?", A: <nope>. Lol, but then after 30 minutes I believe him
One thing I will say that irritates me about the analytics people is that they won’t take the L on the NFC championship game where DC’s two failed 4th down conversions in field goal range let the niners back into the game. I think the math people underrate momentum, situation, and feel of the game as we saw with the lions objectively peeing the game away in San Fran with their idiocy.
I think there is another side to the coin that analytics people over rely on them to deleterious effects.
Maximizing potential points isn't always the right strategy. If the game is tied with :01 left and you're on the one yard line, nobody disagrees that you kick the FG even though trying to run the ball in will result in more points on average. Sometimes people get too stuck in the quantitative mindset that they forget that maximizing your chances of winning by one or more points is more important than maximizing the total number of points you will score.
Ethan needs to listen to his old friend Amin when he constantly says "Tiger's don't change their stripes, they just change jungles." and adapt it to "Tigers don't change, they just go extinct."
Its not like the A's revolutionized baseball immediately, it took an entire generation for the old RBI cohort to be shuffled out before every team was analytically focused. Remember the A's "failed" while a distinctly anti moneyball team across the bay, the giants won 3 World Series.
Same with the NBA where the Warriors revolutionized 3 point shooting but people saw it as a unique situation and only the Rockets for years where the ones actually taking advantage of the three point line.
And to add to Sharpes point that coaches & front offices don't try risky stuff for fear of being fired, Mike Lombardi told a story of when he was GM of the Raiders. Al Davis had the stats department at Berkeley do a study on what was the most effective way the Raiders could improve their team and the stats department immediately said "throw the ball on early downs" and Al said no way, everyone would laugh at us! So, even owners & Dark Lords are not immune to conventional thinking even when they know they can get an advantage.
Yup. On offense its all about execution. If they don't screw up, they will score. No defense can stop an offense that executes. On defense, it's a matter of making one big play or making the offense take long enough for them to make one big negative play.
FYI there are several reasons why the TE market is so depressed relative to WR:
• There are very few elite players at the position and the drop-off from the future HoFers to everyone else is much steeper than other positions. Additionally, it’s also rare for even great TE to excel at all aspects of the position – Kelce is much closer to a WR1 than someone like Kittle or Gronk
• It’s undoubtedly the slowest developing position out of college with a very high bust rate in the early rounds. Consequently, extensions require even more projection than they do for other positions – is he a late-bloomer, or just bad? The list of TE who’ve come out hitting the ground running is quite short and draft position holds little predictive value as to whether or not someone will become an elite player.
• Consequently, because the franchise tag is based on the top five salaries at a particular position the TE number is quite low relative to others which means teams could use the tag on elite tight ends for multiple years without seriously breaking the bank. From the TE’s perspective, that could be a long time to continually bet on yourself without long-term security so the All-Pro types’ deals come in lower.
• This leads to having an All-Pro tight end being even more valuable than what they provide on the field (which is a LOT for the truly great ones) – Kelce’s production has been commiserate with the greatest WR in the game at a fraction of the price.
Similar principles apply to safety and center and it’s why paradoxically the smart, analytically inclined teams* don’t typically invest scarce resources at these positions even though there’s immense value in having the best players at them – identifying these truly elite guys is basically impossible and if you say draft a TE high in the first round they’ll already be paid amongst the most at the position while you probably won’t be able to reap the benefits of them actually playing at that level.
Apologies for the word vomit!
* The 2022 Ravens are probably the exception that proves the rule here when they drafted Kyle Hamilton and Tyler Linderbaum in the 1st round – they were seen as the two best prospects at those positions in recent memory and (at least in Hamilton’s case) it appears to have worked out so far.
Also, just saying TEs produce more efficiently than WRs needs to be drilled down more as to what type of plays they are being effective. More receivers are in when it is an obvious passing down as opposed to TEs when it isn't an obvious passing down and play action is a threat. Also, We need to control for TE's like Kelce that are just slot receivers in reality. I can't remember the last time I saw that guy get in a 3 point stance.
I haven't seen anyone post serious numbers about down and distance controlled efficiency. Like I legit wonder about this with pass rushers, where if Nick Bosa gets to rush the passer when it is 3rd and Long, 25% more than Nick Crosby does that have an effect?
The entire conversation re: the cost of the NFL was off. It’s $479 to buy Sunday Ticket and the combined cost of everything is still less than the old school cable plan we used to have to pay for.
It’s much ado about nothing which is par for the course for Sharpe - he has lots of data but can’t ever answer the simple question of why. And that’s why his thesis often falls apart upon scrutiny.
The other part of that segment left me scratching my head, too. I don't have cable or sunday ticket, but I've always and continue to get 4 sunday games (3 afternoon, nbc sunday night) on the rabbit ears antennae. And in the past it hasn't been uncommon for a cable primetime game like MNF. The Thurs game is new and Amazon, but it's "extra" content (I think it's generally on a local market channel). (side question: are these generally bad-average games on Thurs, or just my recollection bias? Don't usually have any interest in the matchup.)
Peacockification in postseason is a worrying trend, but I think it's distinct from above.
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/sunday-ticket-is-available-on-apple-app-store-for-679-99
Right. Now go on YouTube and you can buy it for $479. The extra charge is for the 30% App Store cut - no clue who is paying for that except uniformed customers listening to fake news on podcasts.
Normally I wouldn’t respond to trolling but you’re in luck - I’m bored.
The point is the real price for the offer isn’t even close to what you and Sharp believe it to be and anyone honestly quoting the price would give the standard one rather than the marked up one - unless they were trying to push an agenda or just ignorant.
And Sunday Ticket is literally apples and oranges to the cable bundle since cable only ever offered a maximum of three day games on Sunday along with SNF and MNF. So you can now get those games with a skinny package that’s much cheaper than the old cable bundle or just get them OTA for free. Without paying for Sunday Ticket, you’re much better off than you were before. Premium products like Sunday Ticket and TNF (available for free in participating teams local markets) are 100% additive and weren’t available in the past. Seems like something to celebrate rather than complain about but that’s just me.
But it's not fake news. I provided a link showing what he said was at least semi-correct. And if I was you, I wouldn't listen to podcasts you think are fake news. And it is stupid to compare the Sunday Ticket price to cable. Cable offers more than just Sunday Ticket.
Ethan just FYI in case helpful :You definitely do not need to apologize to me about a podcast focusing on football (or any sport). I am much more interested in sports related stuff than pure culture podcasts.
I don't mind the sports talk. But I'm not the biggest fan of the niner specific podcasts. And I'm a niner fan.
Or a mix is fine. Podcasters should feel free to switch it up. I mean, your grandmother didn't always serve you the same dish every time.
Hell, man. My grandmother is quicker and tougher than you. Of course she's 6'3" 250 and runs a 4.5
Well then she'd probably do a great podcast switching topics too.
I just can't take Sharp seriously because he is a tout who sells sports picks. It is hard enough to win at sports betting, and leeches like Sharp who sell picks make it even harder for people that don't know any better. He even has the fake tout name to make himself sound smarter and to brand himself, his real name is Tyler Brickner.
Going from the Kat Rosenfeld episode to this one is like going from Basic Instinct to Basic Instinct 2
I made it about five minutes into this episode before I nearly started to hyperventilate. Holy mother of statistical overload was this excruciating. There are analysts out there who zoom-in on the game and break it down on a granular level in a really interesting way and I've gotten some insights from Warren's tweats but talk about strangulating the fun out of something. If I were stuck watching football with somebody like this.I'd want to hang myself or jump out the goddamn window. I suppose the world needs people like this, but I don't need them talking anywhere near me.
I hear ya, though I'm planning on finishing the episode and seeing whether there's any nuggets to glean. But right off the bat, Q: "Is Football still fun to you?", A: <nope>. Lol, but then after 30 minutes I believe him
😂 My god, should you EVER believe him! Dude needs to be scared that AI will replace him sooner than later because I couldn't tell the difference.
One thing I will say that irritates me about the analytics people is that they won’t take the L on the NFC championship game where DC’s two failed 4th down conversions in field goal range let the niners back into the game. I think the math people underrate momentum, situation, and feel of the game as we saw with the lions objectively peeing the game away in San Fran with their idiocy.
I think there is another side to the coin that analytics people over rely on them to deleterious effects.
Maximizing potential points isn't always the right strategy. If the game is tied with :01 left and you're on the one yard line, nobody disagrees that you kick the FG even though trying to run the ball in will result in more points on average. Sometimes people get too stuck in the quantitative mindset that they forget that maximizing your chances of winning by one or more points is more important than maximizing the total number of points you will score.
Ethan needs to listen to his old friend Amin when he constantly says "Tiger's don't change their stripes, they just change jungles." and adapt it to "Tigers don't change, they just go extinct."
Its not like the A's revolutionized baseball immediately, it took an entire generation for the old RBI cohort to be shuffled out before every team was analytically focused. Remember the A's "failed" while a distinctly anti moneyball team across the bay, the giants won 3 World Series.
Same with the NBA where the Warriors revolutionized 3 point shooting but people saw it as a unique situation and only the Rockets for years where the ones actually taking advantage of the three point line.
And to add to Sharpes point that coaches & front offices don't try risky stuff for fear of being fired, Mike Lombardi told a story of when he was GM of the Raiders. Al Davis had the stats department at Berkeley do a study on what was the most effective way the Raiders could improve their team and the stats department immediately said "throw the ball on early downs" and Al said no way, everyone would laugh at us! So, even owners & Dark Lords are not immune to conventional thinking even when they know they can get an advantage.
Football is a Goliath so it doesn't matter what I think, but I hope they don't "solve" it like baseball and basketball.
Yup. On offense its all about execution. If they don't screw up, they will score. No defense can stop an offense that executes. On defense, it's a matter of making one big play or making the offense take long enough for them to make one big negative play.
Thank god the NFL is almost back