Are the NFL Stat Geeks Actually Arrogant?

Football's Confirmation Bias Problem

In response to my column on quarterback rankings and NFL culture largely being anti data, our friend Freddie deBoer left a comment:

As I’ve said for a million billion years, sports statheads desperately need to take some graduate philosophy of science classes. It’s crazy that actual research physicists are more humble about their truth claims than, like, Seth Walder. Every quantitative indicator is subject to its own corruptions, and how you choose which metrics to elevate is always a value-laden process. Which isn’t an argument against statistical analysis, but it is an argument in favor of epistemological modesty, which I don’t see in someone like Walder or Bill Barnwell.

And Kacsmar is a funny reference here because he’s notoriously subject to the dictates of his own resentments; he has insisted for years that Josh Allen is not a good quarterback, and has only been forced to by events in the last couple of years. Why? Because he was a very loud Allen skeptic in his draft process, and he’s mad that Allen proved him wrong. Lots and lots of stat guys are subject to those corrupting influences.

For all I know Freddie is right about Kacsmar. I don’t know much about him beyond agreeing with the gist of a tweet about quarterbacks. I’m better positioned to discuss Freddie’s first point on the insufficiency of statistical analysis in sports and the alleged arrogance of statheads. When it comes to NFL specifically, I’m more so Team Geek and less so Team Vibes. I hate admitting that about myself. It would be cooler to be on the Vibes side. Here’s my thinking on the topic…