And That's Why a Running Back Can't be Literal MVP

Blowout loss lowers QB's status, elevates QB status

America’s foremost NFL writer checking in again…

It was a horrific Christmas night for high ranking HoS muse Brock Purdy, quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers and leading MVP candidate no longer. He threw four interceptions in front of a massive audience and the Ravens blew out the 49ers. In a transfer of status, Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson played well and saw a massive boost to his MVP chances.

I couldn’t even begin to tell you exactly how valuable Jackson is, given that he runs the ball so well, and this ability is then leveraged to help the Ravens’ running backs. It’s difficult to gauge his contributions, since there’s this game theoretic impact of how his talent opens up holes for others. Football’s a complicated game. Except when your quarterback throws the ball to the other team a lot. Then it’s simple.

The Purdy Debacle as QB Status Indicator

Purdy, famously the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, has got some loud doubters. Those doubters have tended to declare 49ers superstar running back Christian McCaffery the real team MVP and actual worthy league MVP candidate. Somehow this cohort was both loudly validated and invalidated by Monday’s surprising result.

Here’s what I mean. Purdy was certainly knocked down a peg, but, if you’re looking bigger picture, so too was the notion that an RB can be a modern NFL MVP. However you feel about San Francisco’s quarterback, his job is more important any of the other individual talents who play with him. The proof? How horribly it goes when he fails to do that job.

Quoting last week’s article:

It is quite reasonable, in my opinion, to think someone other than Purdy is the literal Most Valuable Player in 2023. I personally believe he’s been undervalued due to expectations, but I certainly can’t completely disaggregate his quality from the obvious quality of his surrounding teammates. There are a couple of elite quarterbacks whose circumstances were suboptimal, so I get choosing them over Brock. Would the Bills be totally dead without Josh Allen, for instance? Maybe they’ll win out and change the MVP conversation. Former MVP Lamar Jackson might prevail over Purdy in an upcoming Monday night game and demonstrate why he should be considered. Patrick Mahomes, aforementioned, is clearly the main reason the Chiefs are still Super Bowl contenders. Take your pick. What I don’t get, as an outsider to football analysis, is this: Former players and current pundits making the case for a running back.

And:

This isn’t exactly a hot take, but quarterbacks are extremely important, even if Mark Schlereth and other former players from the 1990s try and argue otherwise on TV. It doesn’t mean that a quarterback in a given year is having the league’s “best” season. It does mean he’s having the most valuable one, though. That’s the game, at least according to the rules we made. If we’re literally deciding MVP, it can’t be CMC.

My post gets into some of the “why,” including but not limited to how even a running back as brilliant as McCaffery isn’t much of a factor in high leverage passing downs. Monday’s result might have indicated that I was overthinking it. If your team’s running back plays terribly, it’s suboptimal; If your quarterback plays terribly, it’s more often catastrophic.

McCaffery was impeccable in the blowout loss. If the game had a been close, his play could have swung the game. But it wasn’t close, even though CMC went off for 104 yards on 14 rushes, a touchdown and 26 yards receiving. McCaffery could have had a much bigger day, but his workload was reduced as the Niners fell behind. Not only do QB errors blot out the good work of a running back, but they also sideline him from the action. A running back is a valuable tool, but also a situational one. They’re a good way to win when you’re winning, and a far less good way to win when you’re losing.

Contrast Purdy’s worst game with CMC’s worst of the season. When the 49ers played the Cowboys, McCaffery averaged 2.7 yards per carry and lost a fumble right in front of the goal line. To be fair, he also scored a touchdown (from one yard out) and caught a couple passes for 27 yards. Someone can quibble with whether this running back performance was anywhere near the depths of Purdy’s disaster, but the general point is this: The Niners won 42-10 when McCaffery wasn’t good, because Purdy was good. When roles were reversed on Christmas, the Niners lost 33-19.

Quarterback is king. He can be helped by circumstance and system. Perhaps the backup is better, perhaps the starter is overrated, etc. But, end of day, the trigger man’s responsibilities outweigh everyone else’s. By far. Devastating mistakes indicate that a quarterback might not be as valuable as touted. Devastating mistakes also reveal that the quarterback is as valuable as ever. And that’s the story, disappointingly simple as it is, even if football is an extraordinarily complicated game.