An Odd Theory on Justin Herbert Apologism

The upside of nobody caring

My NFL heresy is that quarterbacks are, generally, what they do. Sure, the surrounding context matters a lot, but we collectively overrate our ability to award or detract credit on the basis of that context. Guys get hurt all the time, on every team. It’s an inherently chaotic sport where even great situations rapidly devolve. In my opinion, you’re better off just trusting a QB’s individual stats than trying to divine why the production is misleading. It’s rare that a quarterback wildly exceeds past production on a new team. Rich Gannon situations occur only once or twice a decade.

I discussed Justin Herbert with Dieter Kurtenbach last week, specifically what the uber talented Chargers quarterback may be lacking in (our shared take is that he can sometimes betray a lack of feel under duress). Then, Herbert had another terrible playoff game at the hands of the New England Patriots.

It’s a small sample size sport, so perhaps it’s just bad luck that Herbert’s gone 3-for-3 with bad playoff submissions. I’m agnostic on whether postseason games are categorically different than regular season contests, but remain interested in the Legend of Herbert as a media phenomenon.

To be clear, I don’t think Justin Herbert is a bad quarterback. He broke his left hand this season and soon after toughed out a gritty win against the Eagles. Indeed, if the Chargers hadn’t suffered season ending injuries to their vaunted starting tackles, I’m sure he would look better. It’s just that Herbert’s production has been out of alignment with his reputation since 2021. Based on QBR and EPA, Herbert’s been roughly average since his sophomore season, a reality that often gets laid at the feet of his offensive line and/or coaches.

So, over the last decade, Justin Herbert has occupied this odd role of Hypothetical Man in NFL media. It’s not hard to see why, even (and perhaps especially?) divorced from his play. He’s 6’6,’’ with elite throwing power and a 40 time on par with NFL tight ends. If that weren’t enticing enough, Herbert’s also clearly very bright. His Wonderlic score of 39 is 98th percentile, which suggests a problem solving ability you’d get from a high performing medical doctor. I’d add that, yes, subjectively, he comes across as exactly that sharp in his extended interviews. In summary, Justin Herbert have it all.

A refrain from many in NFL media was that if you blamed Herbert for shortcomings, it betrayed one’s own football ignorance. Something like 28 general managers would gladly swap their quarterback for him, and those guys know ball you idiot. Indeed, Herbert became something of a cause for self styled “ball knowers”. Brainy ESPN NFL analyst Benjamin Solak had long passionately defended Herbert, only to concede, this Monday, that yesterday’s performance was putrid.

And of course it was. You could theoretically blame the beleaguered offensive line but the Patriots blitzed Herbert on nearly half his drop backs. That’s not typically done if a team can get pressure with four players, because blitzing leads to open receivers. There were clearly receivers open against the Pats, but, as he’s sometimes prone to do, Herbert held the ball and got rocked to the tune of six sacks.

I come here not to bury Justin Herbert, but to figure out why he’s so praised. I’ve noted the Create-a-Player specs, but believe there’s more to his Hypothetical Man status than physical tools. I just can’t fathom another QB having that game and getting defenses like, “Jim Harbaugh should be indicted for crimes against Justin Herbert,” or “The Chargers should go to jail for what they’ve done to Justin Herbert.”

So what gives? I believe Justin Herbert is an ironic case of having more status than fan base. I grew up in San Diego, which wasn’t the most passionate of football towns, but certainly cared about the Chargers. In 2017 the team moved to glamorous Los Angeles, assuming a newfound following that never really arrived. The Chargers are still residually more popular in my hometown than in LA, where the local ratings are bottom barrel.

So, to perhaps exaggerate the situation, Chargers fans don’t really exist. In 49ers Land, there’s a large following who’ll go online and get mad at Brock Purdy after bad games, somewhat influencing the social media conversation. This will happen to Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and any other quarterback who plays before millions of invested fans. Passionate fans increase the salience of quarterback criticism that then bleeds out into the broader media discussion. The flip side is that big market QB triumphs get more attention, but we humans have a negativity bias. Loud criticism of QB1 is arguably stickier than similarly pitched praise.

So with Justin Herbert, you’ve got a positive brand (elite skillset), boosted by NFL media people anchored in past assessments (Great 2021 season). There’s no persistent countervailing pressure of performance demands. Whether the Chargers lose seems more pertinent to the story arc of Jim Harbaugh’s career than to public hopes and dreams in greater Los Angeles. It is in these unique conditions that apathy is bliss for an athlete’s reputation. Quite a few media people care about Justin Herbert being good, but very few fans care about the Chargers being good. It is in this set up that Justin Herbert can never fail, but only be failed.