I think the issue is that the dorks rank Hebert somewhere in the group below Mahomes, Allen and whatever other QB is having an MVP season any given year. And it’s really hard to get worked up over whether he is the 5th or 9th best QB.
Solak had Herbert ahead of Stafford on his MVP list like a week ago. Just a totally unserious position for anyone who has extensively watched both play this year. Herbert has shown grit and toughness, but come on.
I’ve long been a Herbert defender but I think yesterday will be a turning point in how he’s covered. At least until he gets over the hump.
Funny because Stafford’s career arc bolsters an argument for Herbert, despite the playoff failures, remaining a top-shelf QB. 12 seasons in Detroit, one Pro Bowl, zero wins in the playoffs. 14th/19th EPA last two year with the Lions. Yet everyone close to the league recognized the caliber of player.
It probably helped Stafford’s reputation in the long run that the nerd community and the film bro community didn’t really exist in the 2010s to the extent it does now. Because he woulda been the golden boy for both of those groups and it would’ve turned all the other fans against him. Instead he had guys like Bruce Arians and Aaron Rodgers being like “no you guys don’t get it, this kid is really special”. Unfortunately for Herbert, he has Ben Solak and every nerd within arms reach doing his bidding.
The reason everyone gets excited about Herbert is bc he IS exciting - and the league thrives when players with his ability do well. He was 5-0 in primetime this season, he was box office, and incredibly gritty.
You're not wrong when you say he needs to throw the playbook out and play with a little more feel - there's proof of concept with his comeback Rose Bowl win his senior year, against the Raiders in that insane 4th quarter comeback in 2021, against the Broncos (this year and last), and other games in his career. The problem is that when he's playing under OCs that put the clamps on his game he can't throw away the playbook every game.
You mentioned Daniel Jones in the pod - he lit it up with Shane Steichen for half a season. Guess who Herbert's OC was his rookie year when he shattered records? Yeah.
I know you love yourself some purdy Purdy, but you don't think Herbert would be setting the league on fire in a Shanahan offense instead of Joe Lombardi's dink and dunk scheme or Greg Roman's "medieval" run concept game? Do the football nerd thought experiment of putting Purdy on the Chargers this year. How did Purdy play without Trent Williams? Think he'd get the niners to 11 wins with his 5th and 6th string tackles like Herbert did?
Anyway, it doesn't matter now. The Chargers are out the Niners are moving on (good job you!) Herbert wasn't great last night and neither were the Chargers on offense or special teams. Herbert haters can talk all the sh*t they want, but they know he's got the goods. Tua is on his way to being a journeyman back up and you still have lunatic Dolphin fans SWEAR Tua is better than Herbert.
(And Ethan, just so you know, this is how much of a fan I am of HOS - you love throwing shade on LeBron and Herbert but I just can't quit you xoxo)
Update: Chargers fired Roman and their OL coach. Call it Herbert “being failed” but ownership gets that Herbert needs more support from his players caller and not someone that he’s asked to transcend on a game to game basis
From what little I know (FinHeaven, basically) the towel has been pretty much thrown in on Tua, but the backup position for some is "Herbert sucks too." There are probably more passionate Herbert haters on Dolphin message boards than anywhere outside of San Diego.
The big reveal on Herbert came in 2023 when the Chargers hired Kellen Moore as their Offensive Coordinator replacing Joe Lombardi (now the Broncos OC).
The media hailed it as the most important acquisition of the entire NFL offseason and perhaps in several years. Moore and his scheme were considered a perfect fit for Herbert and would unleash his talents and accelerate his development as he had done with Dak Prescott. Prescott confirmed as much, calling the exiting Moore much more than just his OC, but his mentor too.
The plan Chargered in spectacular fashion.
Herbert’s metrics were virtually identical to those under Lombardi the year prior (in fact, identical to the decimal point for his Passing Rating). After 14 weeks, Herbert suffered a season ending fractured finger, and the Chargers fired Brandon Staley. Moore’s star had fallen so far within the organization from Herbert’s continued developmental struggles that he wasn’t elevated to Interim HC as many in the media expected…LA choosing instead Giff Smith, the Outside Linebackers Coach.
Moore of course quickly moved on after his one season in LA to be hired by Howie Roseman as the OC for the Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. This season Moore has been impressive as HC in his first year with rookie Tyler Shough.
For Justin Herbert, however, it’s remained very much “same as it ever was” – good but not great numbers, injuries, postseason flameouts, and an endless series of new OCs trying to right the ship. Next year will bring on the fifth.
It’s ironic that such a stream of OCs driven by a lack of QB development is now a popular excuse for continued disappointments for favored QBs such as Herbert. Yet, for Herbert, his OCs have included Shane Steichen, Joe Lombardi (who Drew Brees credited as a key to his NFL success and now working with Bo Nix), Moore and most recently Greg Roman (the OC for Lamar Jackson’s MVP season). Opinions can vary of course, but overall, a reasonably impressive slate of OCs – Moore in particular.
Herbert’s struggles to improve under coaches who have gone on to find success elsewhere is a troubling sign that the media ignores. They choose instead to offer the overused and lazy excuse and the end of each season of “the organization has failed Herbert” when it is becoming more apparent that it just might be the other way around – particularly following Herbert’s expensive extension in 2023.
For the last few years, the roster of the Chargers has been reasonably solid…far from depleted and certainly enough for Herbert to succeed. With the much-heralded Jim Harbaugh now leading the organization and Herbert entering year seven, the excuses are running thin. At some point, you are your record.
Complicating matters is that Herbert appears to be increasingly injury prone. An impressive array of injuries has already occurred in his young career including fractured ribs, a torn labrum, multiple broken fingers, a high ankle sprain and plantar fasciitis struggles. Data has shown that QBs that suffer a variety of injuries early in their careers tend to continue to have them throughout their careers at high rates. While Herbert is lauded for his toughness in playing through his injuries, his effectiveness has been reduced and a detriment to the Chargers.
After six seasons, Herbert’s career average Passing Rating is 96.3 with a consistent Approximate Value rating of around 14 year after year. Using his advanced metrics, Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points I believe ranked Herbert 10th in 2023, 10th in 2024 and 17th this year.
I would describe those numbers as Princeton recruiter Bill Rutherford did for Joel in the 80s classic film, Risky Business, “…your stats are very respectable. You’ve done some solid work here…but it’s not quite Ivy League now is it?”
Despite the media relentlessly telling itself Herbert is still elite to keep their spirits high, it looks like it’s going to be the University of Illinois for the Chargers for the foreseeable future…
I think the issue is that the dorks rank Hebert somewhere in the group below Mahomes, Allen and whatever other QB is having an MVP season any given year. And it’s really hard to get worked up over whether he is the 5th or 9th best QB.
Like, who cares enough to argue Herbert v Dak?
Solak had Herbert ahead of Stafford on his MVP list like a week ago. Just a totally unserious position for anyone who has extensively watched both play this year. Herbert has shown grit and toughness, but come on.
I’ve long been a Herbert defender but I think yesterday will be a turning point in how he’s covered. At least until he gets over the hump.
Funny because Stafford’s career arc bolsters an argument for Herbert, despite the playoff failures, remaining a top-shelf QB. 12 seasons in Detroit, one Pro Bowl, zero wins in the playoffs. 14th/19th EPA last two year with the Lions. Yet everyone close to the league recognized the caliber of player.
It probably helped Stafford’s reputation in the long run that the nerd community and the film bro community didn’t really exist in the 2010s to the extent it does now. Because he woulda been the golden boy for both of those groups and it would’ve turned all the other fans against him. Instead he had guys like Bruce Arians and Aaron Rodgers being like “no you guys don’t get it, this kid is really special”. Unfortunately for Herbert, he has Ben Solak and every nerd within arms reach doing his bidding.
The reason everyone gets excited about Herbert is bc he IS exciting - and the league thrives when players with his ability do well. He was 5-0 in primetime this season, he was box office, and incredibly gritty.
You're not wrong when you say he needs to throw the playbook out and play with a little more feel - there's proof of concept with his comeback Rose Bowl win his senior year, against the Raiders in that insane 4th quarter comeback in 2021, against the Broncos (this year and last), and other games in his career. The problem is that when he's playing under OCs that put the clamps on his game he can't throw away the playbook every game.
You mentioned Daniel Jones in the pod - he lit it up with Shane Steichen for half a season. Guess who Herbert's OC was his rookie year when he shattered records? Yeah.
I know you love yourself some purdy Purdy, but you don't think Herbert would be setting the league on fire in a Shanahan offense instead of Joe Lombardi's dink and dunk scheme or Greg Roman's "medieval" run concept game? Do the football nerd thought experiment of putting Purdy on the Chargers this year. How did Purdy play without Trent Williams? Think he'd get the niners to 11 wins with his 5th and 6th string tackles like Herbert did?
Anyway, it doesn't matter now. The Chargers are out the Niners are moving on (good job you!) Herbert wasn't great last night and neither were the Chargers on offense or special teams. Herbert haters can talk all the sh*t they want, but they know he's got the goods. Tua is on his way to being a journeyman back up and you still have lunatic Dolphin fans SWEAR Tua is better than Herbert.
(And Ethan, just so you know, this is how much of a fan I am of HOS - you love throwing shade on LeBron and Herbert but I just can't quit you xoxo)
Update: Chargers fired Roman and their OL coach. Call it Herbert “being failed” but ownership gets that Herbert needs more support from his players caller and not someone that he’s asked to transcend on a game to game basis
From what little I know (FinHeaven, basically) the towel has been pretty much thrown in on Tua, but the backup position for some is "Herbert sucks too." There are probably more passionate Herbert haters on Dolphin message boards than anywhere outside of San Diego.
The big reveal on Herbert came in 2023 when the Chargers hired Kellen Moore as their Offensive Coordinator replacing Joe Lombardi (now the Broncos OC).
The media hailed it as the most important acquisition of the entire NFL offseason and perhaps in several years. Moore and his scheme were considered a perfect fit for Herbert and would unleash his talents and accelerate his development as he had done with Dak Prescott. Prescott confirmed as much, calling the exiting Moore much more than just his OC, but his mentor too.
The plan Chargered in spectacular fashion.
Herbert’s metrics were virtually identical to those under Lombardi the year prior (in fact, identical to the decimal point for his Passing Rating). After 14 weeks, Herbert suffered a season ending fractured finger, and the Chargers fired Brandon Staley. Moore’s star had fallen so far within the organization from Herbert’s continued developmental struggles that he wasn’t elevated to Interim HC as many in the media expected…LA choosing instead Giff Smith, the Outside Linebackers Coach.
Moore of course quickly moved on after his one season in LA to be hired by Howie Roseman as the OC for the Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. This season Moore has been impressive as HC in his first year with rookie Tyler Shough.
For Justin Herbert, however, it’s remained very much “same as it ever was” – good but not great numbers, injuries, postseason flameouts, and an endless series of new OCs trying to right the ship. Next year will bring on the fifth.
It’s ironic that such a stream of OCs driven by a lack of QB development is now a popular excuse for continued disappointments for favored QBs such as Herbert. Yet, for Herbert, his OCs have included Shane Steichen, Joe Lombardi (who Drew Brees credited as a key to his NFL success and now working with Bo Nix), Moore and most recently Greg Roman (the OC for Lamar Jackson’s MVP season). Opinions can vary of course, but overall, a reasonably impressive slate of OCs – Moore in particular.
Herbert’s struggles to improve under coaches who have gone on to find success elsewhere is a troubling sign that the media ignores. They choose instead to offer the overused and lazy excuse and the end of each season of “the organization has failed Herbert” when it is becoming more apparent that it just might be the other way around – particularly following Herbert’s expensive extension in 2023.
For the last few years, the roster of the Chargers has been reasonably solid…far from depleted and certainly enough for Herbert to succeed. With the much-heralded Jim Harbaugh now leading the organization and Herbert entering year seven, the excuses are running thin. At some point, you are your record.
Complicating matters is that Herbert appears to be increasingly injury prone. An impressive array of injuries has already occurred in his young career including fractured ribs, a torn labrum, multiple broken fingers, a high ankle sprain and plantar fasciitis struggles. Data has shown that QBs that suffer a variety of injuries early in their careers tend to continue to have them throughout their careers at high rates. While Herbert is lauded for his toughness in playing through his injuries, his effectiveness has been reduced and a detriment to the Chargers.
After six seasons, Herbert’s career average Passing Rating is 96.3 with a consistent Approximate Value rating of around 14 year after year. Using his advanced metrics, Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points I believe ranked Herbert 10th in 2023, 10th in 2024 and 17th this year.
I would describe those numbers as Princeton recruiter Bill Rutherford did for Joel in the 80s classic film, Risky Business, “…your stats are very respectable. You’ve done some solid work here…but it’s not quite Ivy League now is it?”
Despite the media relentlessly telling itself Herbert is still elite to keep their spirits high, it looks like it’s going to be the University of Illinois for the Chargers for the foreseeable future…
This started at Oregon, where he also failed to justify the hype