Blame the field goal kicker. I really want to write something about how the long ball is a distant cousin of the three pointer. Super charged payoff, an INT probably places the opponent in the back third of their field, it creates gravity that opens space for your offense, etc… we should see 8 to 10 shots a game.
But a dink and dunk risk averse offensive makes sense where 2 first downs puts you in field goal range.
The dink and dunk offenses we see now coincide with the shift of defense from single high safety (legion of boom) in the 2010s to a two high safety look. There are many reasons, but the new defensive meta is a factor.
One uneducated observation: interceptions seem overblown on the broadcasts, too, for at least two reasons (other than those you all have described): (1) the “everyone on the defense runs to the end zone for a choreographed celebration” of any turnover. I don’t remember this being a thing before the cameras put in the end zones of empty stadiums during the Covid years. (2) the mandated review of every turnover, meaning that every interception that’s minimally controversial has to be dissected on air to fill the interminable delay. These are minor factors but perhaps contribute to what you have discussed.
Ethan, thank you for taking time out of your busy day to read my comment and offer such a thoughtful response. Very much appreciated.
One element of the discussion that I omitted in my prior comment in the interest of some brevity, is to look beyond football for additional insights. One such place is baseball. For over a century, baseball was guided almost entirely by an obsessive belief that efficiency is what made players/teams great and was responsible for winning. Batting average, ERA, and fielding average ruled those days. Accolades and hardware were handed out at year end to those who had the highest batting averages, lowest ERAs, and highest fielding percentages.
However, about a decade or so ago, baseball intentionally moved dramatically away from this efficiency perspective and decidedly toward a productivity one as the best way to win games. This new era has been characterized by what is known at "The Three True Outcomes." They are the home run, the strikeout, and the walk. Decidedly production-based metrics that value patience and power over contact, defense or baserunning.
Games today are different experiences for fans and front offices alike than in the past. Home runs matter and have exploded as hitters focus on launch angle and pitch selection – with far less concern for batting average or strikeouts (perhaps baseball’s version of an INT). Pitcher strikeouts now matter a ton - ERA less so in the absence of strikeouts. Fans regularly debate the aesthetics of this recent version of the Pastime and wonder if Tony Gwynn or Greg Maddux would still be considered elite talents today given this new paradigm.
One element is not debatable, however. Run production has gone up and fans are returning to the game considered moribund just 15 years ago or so. In fact, even market forces have applauded.
Just this week two single tool players over the age of 31 and outside of what is considered their primes - Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber - signed massively expensive extensions of more than $30MM AAV simply because they hit a lot of HRs....even though they strike out a lot and do little else. Neither is particularly efficient at what they do, but extremely productive in ways that front offices now value.
Unfortunately, football is going the other way. Take two legends of the game in the not-too-distant past. John Elway averaged 16 INTs per 17 games over his career (300 TDs v. 226 INTs) and ended with a 79.9 Passer Rating. Troy Aikman averaged 15 INTs per 17 games over his career (165 TDs v. 141 INTs) and ended with a 81.6 Passer Rating. They also won multiple Super Bowls and have busts in Canton, Ohio. Busts that reflect a different time and approach to winning the game - a more productivity centric approach. No fear of going deep, even if it meant an interception now and then.
For perspective, with their "inefficient" numbers by today’s standards, I'm not sure many front offices or the media today would view either Elway or Aikman as particularly successful at their position.
Meanwhile, Jordan Love and Josh Allen (neither of whom have even been to a Super Bowl) are talked about as possible MVPs this year with their high Passer Ratings/EBRs… despite neither throwing for even 240 yards per game.
Both productivity and efficiency are important performance measures but must be balanced for optimal performance.
This is too contrarian. Interceptions are bad. Sure, the 3rd and long deep ball that gets picked is the same as a punt. Other than that, they're bad. Turnovers are big difference makers in games.
Deep balls are still incredibly valuable, but defenses know that and make them hard to complete. So the Ds bet that the Os can't string together 5 or 6 1st downs because of sacks, penalties, etc.
Teams in all sports have gotten a lot smarter. Sometimes the smart way of doing things isn't the most exciting way.
Yes, the INT pictured turned what seemed to be a near certain tie and possible win into a definite loss. Indeed looking at the most impactful plays in terms of win probability reveals a lot of INTs (https://share.google/aimode/9FDEUvzi66AKUptqM).
Further, they are at least perceived as discretionary. Football necessarily involves carrying the ball and getting hit, which will result in some fumbles, and recovering fumbles is a matter of luck. There are certain plays that are more likely to result in more interceptions and coaches and QBs avoid them.
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I do think the migration of consuming highlights via social media versus Sports Center is an interesting vein. I do recall occasional Sports Center highlights calling out lack of effort ("Not appearing in your picture", and ironic "full extension!"). But we didn't get reels of basketball players slacking off on defense in the SportsCenter era.
And yes, players are sensitive to that, as Michael Lewis reported on Shane Battier not wanting to do end of quarter heaves that might hurt his FG%
Blame the field goal kicker. I really want to write something about how the long ball is a distant cousin of the three pointer. Super charged payoff, an INT probably places the opponent in the back third of their field, it creates gravity that opens space for your offense, etc… we should see 8 to 10 shots a game.
But a dink and dunk risk averse offensive makes sense where 2 first downs puts you in field goal range.
The dink and dunk offenses we see now coincide with the shift of defense from single high safety (legion of boom) in the 2010s to a two high safety look. There are many reasons, but the new defensive meta is a factor.
One uneducated observation: interceptions seem overblown on the broadcasts, too, for at least two reasons (other than those you all have described): (1) the “everyone on the defense runs to the end zone for a choreographed celebration” of any turnover. I don’t remember this being a thing before the cameras put in the end zones of empty stadiums during the Covid years. (2) the mandated review of every turnover, meaning that every interception that’s minimally controversial has to be dissected on air to fill the interminable delay. These are minor factors but perhaps contribute to what you have discussed.
Ethan, thank you for taking time out of your busy day to read my comment and offer such a thoughtful response. Very much appreciated.
One element of the discussion that I omitted in my prior comment in the interest of some brevity, is to look beyond football for additional insights. One such place is baseball. For over a century, baseball was guided almost entirely by an obsessive belief that efficiency is what made players/teams great and was responsible for winning. Batting average, ERA, and fielding average ruled those days. Accolades and hardware were handed out at year end to those who had the highest batting averages, lowest ERAs, and highest fielding percentages.
However, about a decade or so ago, baseball intentionally moved dramatically away from this efficiency perspective and decidedly toward a productivity one as the best way to win games. This new era has been characterized by what is known at "The Three True Outcomes." They are the home run, the strikeout, and the walk. Decidedly production-based metrics that value patience and power over contact, defense or baserunning.
Games today are different experiences for fans and front offices alike than in the past. Home runs matter and have exploded as hitters focus on launch angle and pitch selection – with far less concern for batting average or strikeouts (perhaps baseball’s version of an INT). Pitcher strikeouts now matter a ton - ERA less so in the absence of strikeouts. Fans regularly debate the aesthetics of this recent version of the Pastime and wonder if Tony Gwynn or Greg Maddux would still be considered elite talents today given this new paradigm.
One element is not debatable, however. Run production has gone up and fans are returning to the game considered moribund just 15 years ago or so. In fact, even market forces have applauded.
Just this week two single tool players over the age of 31 and outside of what is considered their primes - Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber - signed massively expensive extensions of more than $30MM AAV simply because they hit a lot of HRs....even though they strike out a lot and do little else. Neither is particularly efficient at what they do, but extremely productive in ways that front offices now value.
Unfortunately, football is going the other way. Take two legends of the game in the not-too-distant past. John Elway averaged 16 INTs per 17 games over his career (300 TDs v. 226 INTs) and ended with a 79.9 Passer Rating. Troy Aikman averaged 15 INTs per 17 games over his career (165 TDs v. 141 INTs) and ended with a 81.6 Passer Rating. They also won multiple Super Bowls and have busts in Canton, Ohio. Busts that reflect a different time and approach to winning the game - a more productivity centric approach. No fear of going deep, even if it meant an interception now and then.
For perspective, with their "inefficient" numbers by today’s standards, I'm not sure many front offices or the media today would view either Elway or Aikman as particularly successful at their position.
Meanwhile, Jordan Love and Josh Allen (neither of whom have even been to a Super Bowl) are talked about as possible MVPs this year with their high Passer Ratings/EBRs… despite neither throwing for even 240 yards per game.
Both productivity and efficiency are important performance measures but must be balanced for optimal performance.
Thanks again for taking the time.
This is too contrarian. Interceptions are bad. Sure, the 3rd and long deep ball that gets picked is the same as a punt. Other than that, they're bad. Turnovers are big difference makers in games.
Deep balls are still incredibly valuable, but defenses know that and make them hard to complete. So the Ds bet that the Os can't string together 5 or 6 1st downs because of sacks, penalties, etc.
Teams in all sports have gotten a lot smarter. Sometimes the smart way of doing things isn't the most exciting way.
Yes, the INT pictured turned what seemed to be a near certain tie and possible win into a definite loss. Indeed looking at the most impactful plays in terms of win probability reveals a lot of INTs (https://share.google/aimode/9FDEUvzi66AKUptqM).
Further, they are at least perceived as discretionary. Football necessarily involves carrying the ball and getting hit, which will result in some fumbles, and recovering fumbles is a matter of luck. There are certain plays that are more likely to result in more interceptions and coaches and QBs avoid them.
---
I do think the migration of consuming highlights via social media versus Sports Center is an interesting vein. I do recall occasional Sports Center highlights calling out lack of effort ("Not appearing in your picture", and ironic "full extension!"). But we didn't get reels of basketball players slacking off on defense in the SportsCenter era.
And yes, players are sensitive to that, as Michael Lewis reported on Shane Battier not wanting to do end of quarter heaves that might hurt his FG%
You still calling it football? I thought Trump agreed to change the name after Infantino gave him his participation medal