So the Week 2 NFL SportsPredict winner is Xylocaine, who is now afforded a free House of Strauss subscription. Email me at houseofstrauss@substack.com if you wish to collect. Also, I sometimes forget to mention, you other people can email me there for story tips and ideas.
We’ll arrive at other rewards for the different weeks and come up with an ultimate final prize. Thanks to all participants in our Non Gambling Picks Contest.
I’m currently ranked 12th, and would like to rise higher, so it pains me to give away a potential picks/gambling edge. But, end of day, I’m more a media person than a sharp. My job isn’t exactly about keeping secrets. It’s to tell you what’s on my mind, within reason.
And so I’ll say: I’ve had some success placing picks on made long field goals. As discussed with Steve, teams are converting long kicks at a historically high rate. The most extreme example last Sunday was Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey sending a game into overtime with a 64 yard field goal that had plenty of distance to spare. So, is this a new normal with field goals? Or just the continuation of a longer trend?
Dieter Kurtenbach, of Dieter and Hutch, sent me an intriguing theory about the new normal.
The NFL introduced the K ball in 1999 to standardize the ball for special teams. They were effectively fresh balls and were “a rock “to kick.
NFL teams typically get their shipment of balls for games at the beginning of the week and can mud and work those balls throughout the course of the week leading up to the game. Kickers on the other hand received K-balls 90 minutes before kickoff.
This year, after vigorous campaigning, the NFL allowed kickers to receive balls at the same time that offenses received balls. That means that kickers and punters, who have almost unlimited free time throughout the week, can now spend that free time breaking in the balls for game days.
The result is a ball that has a lot more give, and in turn a stronger rebound effect. We saw Cam Little kick a 65 yard field goal for the Jaguars in the preseason, and that’s when it was pretty clear that all hell was about to break loose.
The new K ball rules, in conjunction with the specialized training of kickers being better than it ever has been, is set to produce an offensive explosion.
It should also be noted that head coaches in the NFL are more comfortable with going for it on fourth down than ever before, and while that seems antithetical to the whole concept of kicking field goals, it is in fact, tied, as it is a question of field position risk. When you miss a field goal, the ball is taken over at the spot of the kick. If we operated in a more conservative landscape, one could argue that NFL head coaches still would not allow kickers the opportunity to kick 60+ yard field goals, because of the inherent risk of field position loss should that kick miss.
40 60+ field goals in nfl history before this season. There are already three this season.
I like this theory. It could be an edge. Or at least it would be in a universe where the sports books actually let you make money. The only confounder here is that, impressive as the kicking has been through two weeks of the NFL season, it’s fairly similar to the great kicking we saw at the beginning of the 2024 season.
Here’s what I’ll posit, with little way of knowing it’s true: Perhaps the K balls pay dividends not now, but later on as the weather becomes less kicking-friendly. Theoretically, comfort with sports equipment matters a bit more when conditions are adverse. Also, it’s possible that the early weeks of the 2024 season were somewhat aberrational, whereas what we’re seeing now is a new K ball era normal. I’m not sure, but I’ll probably keep picking kicks until the results markedly shift.