Thoughts on Refs
The Whistle, the Incentive, and the $100 Million Question
As Nate Silver said:
Not great when the storyline of an NBA Finals game is the officiating.
I agree but am also not sure how we avoid that conversation in the NBA, for reasons I’ll get into. But first, here’s the storyline, brought to you by upset Knicks coach Mike Brown following a close Game 3 loss that was either caused by a) the Spurs taking Victor Wembanyama off Karl-Anthony Towns b) Donald Trump or c) Marc Davis’ ref crew:
I never thought I’d be in the NBA Finals and see a team get 24 free throw attempts in the second half to another team’s eight.
Josh Dubow of the AP did some research on Brown’s claim:
It was the first Finals game in play by play era when one team had 24+ free throws in 2nd half and the other had 8 or fewer. (There were 9 other games with a free throw discrepancy of 16+ in 2nd half in that span including 16-0 for Nuggets vs Heat in Game 1 2023)
So the question is whether this statistical anomaly reflected a discrepancy in game play between the two sides, or just unequal refereeing. Obviously, it’s flawed to work off an assumption that all teams foul equally in every game.
My highly subjective officiating take on Game 3 of the Finals: