The NHL's Ratings Surge Has an Awkward Explanation

Meet the new NHL viewers

Doug Bernstein is a sharp guy who happens to be SVP of Research at TNT Sports and I hope I’m not causing trouble for him with this post. Last week, Bernstein tweeted out a fascinating deep dive on the NHL viewership boom that revealed a counterintuitive explanation. I’d show it to you but we can’t see it because the post was deleted. I know what it generally said, but not necessarily why it was taken down. I also know the numbers to be accurate, at least as a reflection of Nielsen data.

As I mentioned in last week’s “Nielsen magic” story, there’s been a mysterious explosion in NHL Playoffs ratings. The opening five ESPN games were up 141% Year over Year. TNT’s opening playoff hockey broadcasts also set records. So what’s going on here?

A sports bettor and hockey fan advanced an intriguing theory.

NBA going to Prime is a massive chance for the NHL Playoffs to take its place. Olympics bump + only playoffs on normal TV is massive. Most people won’t flip to Prime to watch games, even if they already have it. Don’t understand that decision from the NBA at all. If ESPN didn’t talk about it 24/7, think it would be dying more quickly than it is.

Now, I don’t believe the NHL is ever going to overtake the NBA in American popularity. Hockey fans who live in the Midwest or Northeast can sometimes forget just how nonexistent the sport is in some other parts of the country. As a personal anecdote, I don’t think I saw a hockey game on television until adulthood. Sure, San Diego had a well regarded minor league hockey team but it’s also…San Diego. For most people I knew, our conception of the sport was having heard about “Wayne Gretzky” and having seen the Mighty Ducks movie. That was it, back in an era with far less competing content.

But there’s something to this “only playoffs on normal TV” theory, and I believe it could be connected to what’s in the deleted Bernstein post. What’s funny to me about this situation is that, while the NHL loves the playoff viewership numbers, they don’t love all the viewership stats. I’m not saying that the league pressured the SVP of Research for a broadcast partner to remove a tweet, but I also know they’d largely hate what the tweet said.

So what did the data say and why would the NHL dislike the narrative such information would advance? If this is largely a positive story for professional hockey, then why would the league be averse to its true nature?

I’m reminded of what I wrote about how sports leagues feel about fans:

Sports leagues would prefer that their real fan be a sophisticated, highly educated, multiracial Gen Z woman who swings by the arena after leaving her downtown tech job. In reality, the real fan is more often Jersey Jerry, the Barstool lump who shat himself on a subway train.

Now, Bernstein’s data didn’t reveal a bunch of Jersey Jerrys, though I assume many watched the NHL playoffs. Instead it was an even less fashionable cohort.