One key difference between Purdy and Green was that Green was one of the best players on one of the best teams in college basketball and Purdy was a pretty good football player for a mediocre team. I think you would have a lot of people who watched a lot of college basketball say they aren’t surprised Green was good in the NBA. I watch a lot of college football and Purdy is a massive surprise.
Aced the S2 Cognition test which supposedly tests for decision making too. You can teach someone to throw the ball harder but you can’t teach someone how to get through progressions quicker!
He's winning and he might keep it up, but he has the worst arm talent in the league and sooner or later he's going to have to make a throw he can't make
I think the first time I saw him play, he play actioned, fake screened, and threw a touchdown pass. It was like watching a scripted performance. I'm a Lion guy and Purdy is gonna fuck us this year, frowny face.
I didn't like his missing those deep throws Ethan referred to in the article; he seemed to be overdoing it / trying too hard, which is not a good indicator. Much like MLB pitchers who blow out their arms, real power pitchers (Bob Feller, Nolan Ryan) often have long careers because they *don't* have to put everything into every pitch. If Purdy has to wind his arm to throw a deep ball then goodbye accuracy and the defense can adjust accordingly.
All that said, his decision making is excellent and that's the single most important thing. But his arm strength is a concern. Hope I'm wrong and he's hitting the weight room and using TB12 stretch bands 24/7 .
I think people underrate short passes when they discuss arm talent. Timing, accuracy (the kind of accuracy that leads to YAC.) A clear strength of Purdy's.
The point about people overvaluing what they can easily measure is very true. There is an open question regarding how much of the field he can access, given his physical limitations. This is good grounds for skepticism.
However, with many high drafted failures there was an open question regarding how much of a playbook or scheme they could access given their more ephemeral limitations (processing + reaction time, football iq/intuition, commitment/work ethic, etc…) that was answered “not much.” This seems to be less of a type of concern than it should be—maybe (and this kind of relates to some of Mr. deBoer’s work) it speaks to the egotism of coaches and their beliefs regarding being able to teach certain things to a degree which may not be teachable
In each of those stats he is ahead of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes - either of whose arm strength no one has any reason to doubt. The only QB ahead of him in all three stats is Tua. But he is beating Tua in passer rating, where is he 1st.
I guess he is only 22nd in intended air yards, but then he plays with several big YAC guys (7th in YAC per completion), so it seems to me that this suggests he can throw hard if he needs to, but he doesn't do it as much because he doesn't need to.
He's accurate too. 3rd in completion %, 5th in On Target %, 9th best bad throw percentage, has not yet thrown an INT.
And then there's of course the highly subjective eye test, which to my eye, he has passed by throwing balls with zip and accuracy. So...?
I mean. You said he doesn't have arm talent. I gave you what could be considered an objective measure of arm talent - in the context of having great stats in, like, every other passing category. I don't know what could refute your argument if not that? I guess my question is, in view of those stats, where are you getting that he doesn't have arm talent?
Edit: He has also never lost a start, and took the team to the NFC championship, where he lost after being unable to throw any due to injury. So, it's not like he's only played bad defenses that can't defend passes. I would just like to know what is the basis of your claim.
Freddie's line of thinking is that given Purdy's lack of arm talent / strength, defensive coordinators are going to dare him to throw deep and crowd the middle third of the field with defenders so that only deep balls are available. At the same time coordinators will try to roll him left , flood that side in the secondary and force him to throw across his body to an open man. If he can't make either of those throws the winning stops.
As you say hasn't happened yet, so his metrics are good, but if / when it does then Trouble will arrive. Or will it? Maybe his arm is good enough to exploit those opportunities. But I share Freddie's concern about his arm strength.
Fair but that's a bit of a motte and bailey. Freddie said he was "the worst arm talent in the league" - that's a much stronger claim than, "His arm strength might not be good enough in certain situations."
Worst arm talent in the league among 100 QBs? I won't claim to be an expert, but I think it's considered reasonable to say he has the better arm vs Garoppolo, who I consider to be a top 20 QB. At worst, a starting QB in the league.
I think he has the weakest arm out of any starter and that there's a good number of backups (like Jacoby Brissett or Drew Lock) who have better arms. Of course, arm strength isn't everything, and I didn't suggest it was. But arm strength isn't nothing, either; you can look at Heisman winners like Jason White who simply could not play in the NFL because they couldn't make the throws necessary to beat a pro defense.
True. But I wonder at what you need to see before you change your mind that his arm is good enough. Again, not claiming expertise, but he regularly hits on 20-45 yard throws in the air that Garoppolo and many other QBs don't. I remember Kyle Boller with all his tremendous arm strength couldn't do anything with it in a game.
I just get the feeling people are incredibly harsh about what he hasn't shown off as if the 49ers stuff is a fluke and he'd only be good enough to be a backup QB (Nick Mullens) if we put him on any other team.
Not to be super defensive on Purdy but there's also a question of how much he adjusts his throws in order to avoid picks - a slightly higher chance on incompletion coupled with lower chance of an interception. I think Shanahan hinted at something like that after G4. It's not nothing to throw 0 picks after 5 games, with the type of passing range he's displaying.
Interesting read that made me think. The comparison to Draymond is apt but you needn't travel to Sacramento or the NBA to find an intriging analog. Joe Montana came out of collage with mostly the same evaluation as Purdy except Joe threw more picks. Joe's late 3rd round selection shocked many evaluators and was in large part due to two years as ND's golden boy with plenty of National TV exposure.
Brock landed on a team that needed a QB with quick reads and throws and already had top tier defense. Joe landed in Bill Walsh's nascent system that valued QB's with quick reads and throws and he prospered as its first triggerman. If the Bucs or Lions took Joe does he have four rings and a yellow jacket? If Brock goes to Chicago do we ever hear his name? Right skillset, right place, right time. Purdy will fall back to the pack but he looks comfortable as an Alpha.
Reminds me of a tweet stating Tom Brady's superpower was knowing that somebody was going to mess up during a crucial moment and it's not going to be him.
Nice article. The other side of the same question is why was he drafted so late? He is certainly not the first qb to be overlooked. I would be interested in an in-depth article about the “science” of drafting qbs.
I read this late, so we saw Purdy against the Cowboys defense. Looks like Purdy got the best of that matchup. It's odd that I see "arm strength" pushed so hard here, when there are tons of QB's who didn't have the howitzer and were quality QB's, or are in the HOF. Brees didn't have a cannon, Montana's arm was nothing special, Jeff George had a shotgun, Aikman's arm was always described as 'good enough' .... the monster armed QB is not a prerequisite. It never has been.
It's early, but Purdy might have more staying power than many think. I don't think his arm strength will do him in.
First, this article got the first name shout out on Simmons podcast. Second, does the Purdy selection completely offset the failure of the Trey Lance trade? They botch the Lance trade but stick the Purdy pick. Is it a wash?
Ruiz has a stated bias towards qb physical traits/size that he has been consistent with.
That lens has already proved correct once with Purdy- nfc championship game injury. With the great Colton mckivitz at right tackle, why move off a position that has already been reinforced?
One key difference between Purdy and Green was that Green was one of the best players on one of the best teams in college basketball and Purdy was a pretty good football player for a mediocre team. I think you would have a lot of people who watched a lot of college basketball say they aren’t surprised Green was good in the NBA. I watch a lot of college football and Purdy is a massive surprise.
Aced the S2 Cognition test which supposedly tests for decision making too. You can teach someone to throw the ball harder but you can’t teach someone how to get through progressions quicker!
He's winning and he might keep it up, but he has the worst arm talent in the league and sooner or later he's going to have to make a throw he can't make
Sets the stage for what Dan Quinn has in store for him Sunday night!
Advantage: Purdy.
I think the first time I saw him play, he play actioned, fake screened, and threw a touchdown pass. It was like watching a scripted performance. I'm a Lion guy and Purdy is gonna fuck us this year, frowny face.
Maybe that is true, but arm talent never stopped Drew Brees!
I didn't like his missing those deep throws Ethan referred to in the article; he seemed to be overdoing it / trying too hard, which is not a good indicator. Much like MLB pitchers who blow out their arms, real power pitchers (Bob Feller, Nolan Ryan) often have long careers because they *don't* have to put everything into every pitch. If Purdy has to wind his arm to throw a deep ball then goodbye accuracy and the defense can adjust accordingly.
All that said, his decision making is excellent and that's the single most important thing. But his arm strength is a concern. Hope I'm wrong and he's hitting the weight room and using TB12 stretch bands 24/7 .
I think people underrate short passes when they discuss arm talent. Timing, accuracy (the kind of accuracy that leads to YAC.) A clear strength of Purdy's.
The point about people overvaluing what they can easily measure is very true. There is an open question regarding how much of the field he can access, given his physical limitations. This is good grounds for skepticism.
However, with many high drafted failures there was an open question regarding how much of a playbook or scheme they could access given their more ephemeral limitations (processing + reaction time, football iq/intuition, commitment/work ethic, etc…) that was answered “not much.” This seems to be less of a type of concern than it should be—maybe (and this kind of relates to some of Mr. deBoer’s work) it speaks to the egotism of coaches and their beliefs regarding being able to teach certain things to a degree which may not be teachable
The worst arm talent in the league? Really?
Purdy is currently
- 2nd in yards/attempt
- 10th in completed air yards
- 6th in air yard per completion
- 3rd in air yards per passing attempt.
In each of those stats he is ahead of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes - either of whose arm strength no one has any reason to doubt. The only QB ahead of him in all three stats is Tua. But he is beating Tua in passer rating, where is he 1st.
I guess he is only 22nd in intended air yards, but then he plays with several big YAC guys (7th in YAC per completion), so it seems to me that this suggests he can throw hard if he needs to, but he doesn't do it as much because he doesn't need to.
He's accurate too. 3rd in completion %, 5th in On Target %, 9th best bad throw percentage, has not yet thrown an INT.
And then there's of course the highly subjective eye test, which to my eye, he has passed by throwing balls with zip and accuracy. So...?
"In each of those stats he is ahead of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes - either of whose arm strength no one has any reason to doubt."
So that not a great metric for seen strength then, right?
I mean. You said he doesn't have arm talent. I gave you what could be considered an objective measure of arm talent - in the context of having great stats in, like, every other passing category. I don't know what could refute your argument if not that? I guess my question is, in view of those stats, where are you getting that he doesn't have arm talent?
Edit: He has also never lost a start, and took the team to the NFC championship, where he lost after being unable to throw any due to injury. So, it's not like he's only played bad defenses that can't defend passes. I would just like to know what is the basis of your claim.
Freddie's line of thinking is that given Purdy's lack of arm talent / strength, defensive coordinators are going to dare him to throw deep and crowd the middle third of the field with defenders so that only deep balls are available. At the same time coordinators will try to roll him left , flood that side in the secondary and force him to throw across his body to an open man. If he can't make either of those throws the winning stops.
As you say hasn't happened yet, so his metrics are good, but if / when it does then Trouble will arrive. Or will it? Maybe his arm is good enough to exploit those opportunities. But I share Freddie's concern about his arm strength.
Fair but that's a bit of a motte and bailey. Freddie said he was "the worst arm talent in the league" - that's a much stronger claim than, "His arm strength might not be good enough in certain situations."
Worst arm talent in the league among 100 QBs? I won't claim to be an expert, but I think it's considered reasonable to say he has the better arm vs Garoppolo, who I consider to be a top 20 QB. At worst, a starting QB in the league.
I think he has the weakest arm out of any starter and that there's a good number of backups (like Jacoby Brissett or Drew Lock) who have better arms. Of course, arm strength isn't everything, and I didn't suggest it was. But arm strength isn't nothing, either; you can look at Heisman winners like Jason White who simply could not play in the NFL because they couldn't make the throws necessary to beat a pro defense.
True. But I wonder at what you need to see before you change your mind that his arm is good enough. Again, not claiming expertise, but he regularly hits on 20-45 yard throws in the air that Garoppolo and many other QBs don't. I remember Kyle Boller with all his tremendous arm strength couldn't do anything with it in a game.
I just get the feeling people are incredibly harsh about what he hasn't shown off as if the 49ers stuff is a fluke and he'd only be good enough to be a backup QB (Nick Mullens) if we put him on any other team.
Not to be super defensive on Purdy but there's also a question of how much he adjusts his throws in order to avoid picks - a slightly higher chance on incompletion coupled with lower chance of an interception. I think Shanahan hinted at something like that after G4. It's not nothing to throw 0 picks after 5 games, with the type of passing range he's displaying.
There will likely come a time when he needs to hit the Emmanuel Sanders type pass that Jimmy G missed in the SB. Then we'll know.
Interesting read that made me think. The comparison to Draymond is apt but you needn't travel to Sacramento or the NBA to find an intriging analog. Joe Montana came out of collage with mostly the same evaluation as Purdy except Joe threw more picks. Joe's late 3rd round selection shocked many evaluators and was in large part due to two years as ND's golden boy with plenty of National TV exposure.
Brock landed on a team that needed a QB with quick reads and throws and already had top tier defense. Joe landed in Bill Walsh's nascent system that valued QB's with quick reads and throws and he prospered as its first triggerman. If the Bucs or Lions took Joe does he have four rings and a yellow jacket? If Brock goes to Chicago do we ever hear his name? Right skillset, right place, right time. Purdy will fall back to the pack but he looks comfortable as an Alpha.
I dunno. I love Goff, but I think Purdy with these young Lions would be fire.
This is a very money-ballish, Michael Lewis type post you got going here. Bay Area Trifecta Happening
Purdy and the 49ers
Money Green and the Dubs
& back in the day (when they weren’t a glorified farm team) the Billy Bean lead A’s
Love to apply this outside of sports. What are the over and under valued attributes?
Reminds me of a tweet stating Tom Brady's superpower was knowing that somebody was going to mess up during a crucial moment and it's not going to be him.
Nice article. The other side of the same question is why was he drafted so late? He is certainly not the first qb to be overlooked. I would be interested in an in-depth article about the “science” of drafting qbs.
I read this late, so we saw Purdy against the Cowboys defense. Looks like Purdy got the best of that matchup. It's odd that I see "arm strength" pushed so hard here, when there are tons of QB's who didn't have the howitzer and were quality QB's, or are in the HOF. Brees didn't have a cannon, Montana's arm was nothing special, Jeff George had a shotgun, Aikman's arm was always described as 'good enough' .... the monster armed QB is not a prerequisite. It never has been.
It's early, but Purdy might have more staying power than many think. I don't think his arm strength will do him in.
First, this article got the first name shout out on Simmons podcast. Second, does the Purdy selection completely offset the failure of the Trey Lance trade? They botch the Lance trade but stick the Purdy pick. Is it a wash?
My only Q: does turning in early make SNF get here faster?
Rock steady, Brock.🔥
Lol I'm central time and it feels like 7:15 is 11:15. Feel bad for EST/EDT
My thoughts & prayers go out to the Greenwich Mean Timers. UK fans are the best.
Ruiz has a stated bias towards qb physical traits/size that he has been consistent with.
That lens has already proved correct once with Purdy- nfc championship game injury. With the great Colton mckivitz at right tackle, why move off a position that has already been reinforced?
I was so disappointed that game they didn't put McCaffrey in at QB. What a waste of all our times, Christian included.
The Niners system is designed for his arm and decision making prowess. That’s what great teams do.
In other words he’s an AI trained with reinforcement learning in a Silicon Valley lab. Got it 👌
I mean Steven Ruiz is just a huge idiot so I wouldn’t read anything into what he says.
Love the DG comp