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Patrick Mahomes Didn’t Get Worse. The NFL Got Harder.

Explaining the Mahomes drop off

Ethan Strauss's avatar
Ethan Strauss
Oct 26, 2026
∙ Paid

To my mind, the Patrick Mahomes situation over these past few years is like the inverse of Norm Macdonald’s Saturday Night Live monologue joke about being asked to host the program after getting fired from it:

Then it occurred to me, I haven’t gotten funnier, the show has gotten really bad!

Mahomes, now age 31, hasn’t declined, at least in my opinion. NFL defense just rapidly improved since the 2018 MVP season when he threw 50 touchdowns. Mahomes has fewer weapons now and his team has injuries at tackle. That’s been the main focus when this topic gets brought up but I’d argue the underrated limiting issue is more the environment around the league than what’s wrong with the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs. You can see what’s happening on one single play, influenced by the freakish sort of player who’s getting drafted into the NFL every season.

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