The discussion regarding PFF and a lack of precision likely understates the actual problem with the ratings. It’s probably not “just a guy” making judgments about players with imperfect information - it’s likely lots of people with added multipliers of human variance and error.
Second, there is basic rule of expressing precision in science that instructs that the result of a calculation cannot be more precise than the least accurate input used in the calculation. To do so is a deceptive expression of purported accuracy. It’s a logical rule.
Few things in life are as fraught with a lack of precision as the measurement of human performance. Companies spend billions trying to figure that out each year - largely unsuccessfully beyond bright line results. Same with the NFL Draft and its “grades” which each year reminds us that evaluating human performance is really difficult, as well as imprecise and inaccurate.
So, how are the good folks at PFF able to display player ratings based only on a handful of games that include decimal points? For example, how is a certain QB rated a 70.1? What does that decimal point of 1 reflect? How is that level of precision validated? When I see that sort of an analytical miss, it just convinces me that those ratings aren’t credible.
Finally, I cannot disagree more with Raheem’s view that he’d rather have something versus nothing in terms of data. Bad data is worse than no data because no data forces you to look further for data and insights. Bad data misleads into believing you that have an insight when you don’t.
i’ve only ever heard this guy talk once, and it was after the chiefs niners super bowl where he said he had a live bet he loved but missed putting the money down because he left the game to go to the kitchen and make chicken fingers or something. can’t really take him seriously after that
Sportsbooks are antiquated. Only reason why they shut down winners is cuz they're taking the other side.
Just bet sports in prediction markets like Polymarket which are pure exchanges that match your order with other bettors. They have no incentive to shut down winners since they make money off volume not outcomes.
The discussion regarding PFF and a lack of precision likely understates the actual problem with the ratings. It’s probably not “just a guy” making judgments about players with imperfect information - it’s likely lots of people with added multipliers of human variance and error.
Second, there is basic rule of expressing precision in science that instructs that the result of a calculation cannot be more precise than the least accurate input used in the calculation. To do so is a deceptive expression of purported accuracy. It’s a logical rule.
Few things in life are as fraught with a lack of precision as the measurement of human performance. Companies spend billions trying to figure that out each year - largely unsuccessfully beyond bright line results. Same with the NFL Draft and its “grades” which each year reminds us that evaluating human performance is really difficult, as well as imprecise and inaccurate.
So, how are the good folks at PFF able to display player ratings based only on a handful of games that include decimal points? For example, how is a certain QB rated a 70.1? What does that decimal point of 1 reflect? How is that level of precision validated? When I see that sort of an analytical miss, it just convinces me that those ratings aren’t credible.
Finally, I cannot disagree more with Raheem’s view that he’d rather have something versus nothing in terms of data. Bad data is worse than no data because no data forces you to look further for data and insights. Bad data misleads into believing you that have an insight when you don’t.
His one appearance on Ryen Russillo’s podcast (Ringer) went so badly he’s not been back, and it’s very obvious why if you find it.
After a recent run of excellent guests, this one is a hard pass.
Raheem is not a pro bettor. He is a beard for some large bettors
i’ve only ever heard this guy talk once, and it was after the chiefs niners super bowl where he said he had a live bet he loved but missed putting the money down because he left the game to go to the kitchen and make chicken fingers or something. can’t really take him seriously after that
Sportsbooks are antiquated. Only reason why they shut down winners is cuz they're taking the other side.
Just bet sports in prediction markets like Polymarket which are pure exchanges that match your order with other bettors. They have no incentive to shut down winners since they make money off volume not outcomes.
Matt Levine has the term: spot-fixing (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-07-09/goldman-wants-quarterly-loyalty-updates?srnd=undefined)